TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in L. Midon vs R. Carballes Baena (French Open on 2026-05-19) — the market is efficient, with R. Carballes Baena favoured at 1.44.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Midon | R. Carballes Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
59.4% | 40.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
69.7% | 30.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
74.5% | 25.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
67.8% | 32.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
35.5% | 64.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Midon | clay | 1658 | 163–95 | 258 |
| R. Carballes Baena | clay | 1645 | 139–85 | 224 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 16, 2026.
R. Carballes Baena leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 19, 2026 | French Open | clay | R. Carballes Baena | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. Tabilo | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | F. Diaz Acosta | 1 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| W | I. Marcondes | 0 - 2 | July 13, 2026 |
| W | V. W. Rejchtman | 0 - 2 | July 12, 2026 |
| L | Z. Piros | 0 - 2 | July 10, 2026 |
| L | O. Wallin | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | M. Houkes | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | M. Huesler | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | C. Sanchez Jover | 0 - 1 | July 12, 2026 |
| L | M. McDonald | 2 - 0 | June 24, 2026 |
All May 19, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used