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L. Klimovicova vs E. Yaneva — Prediction & Analysis

Warsaw · · Aug. 3, 2026 · 08:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in L. Klimovicova vs E. Yaneva (Warsaw on 2026-08-03) — the market is efficient, with L. Klimovicova favoured at 1.91.

Surface hard Odds L. Klimovicova 1.91 · E. Yaneva 1.91

Verdict: no bet

The model found no value at current prices — the market has this one priced about right. That verdict is part of the public record too.
Profiles: L. Klimovicova · E. Yaneva · head-to-head record · Warsaw

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method L. Klimovicova E. Yaneva
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
 47.3% 52.7%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
 52.8% 47.2%
Serve / return
point-by-point simulation
 54.1% 45.9%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
 47.3% 52.7%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
 50.0% 50.0%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
L. Klimovicova hard1647 130–59189
E. Yaneva hard1703 38–1553

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.

Head to head

E. Yaneva leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
Aug. 4, 2026WarsawhardE. Yaneva2 - 1

Recent form

L. Klimovicova

L E. Yaneva 1 - 2 Aug. 4, 2026
L R. Saigo 0 - 2 Aug. 1, 2026
W V. Chaudhari 2 - 0 July 31, 2026
W C. Vlasselaer 2 - 0 July 30, 2026
W N. Sato 2 - 0 July 28, 2026

E. Yaneva

W L. Klimovicova 1 - 2 Aug. 4, 2026
L F. Urgesi 2 - 1 July 20, 2026
L M. Trevisan 1 - 2 July 17, 2026
W S. Lansere 2 - 0 July 15, 2026
W O. Selekhmeteva 0 - 2 July 13, 2026

All Aug. 3, 2026 results & picks →

Full analysis

Klimovicova (A) vs Yaneva (B) — Warsaw, hard.

MODELS vs MARKET
  ELO A 47.3% | ML A 52.8% | sim A 47.3% — models cluster ~50/50.
  Betfair ML: A 1.66 (~55% devig), B 2.0 (~50% raw). Market makes A a
  clear favourite, MORE bullish on A than ANY model. Book quote 1.91/1.91
  is stale placeholder; exchange is truth.

RECENT FORM
  A (Klimovicova, 22, #138): playing W35 Aldershot ITF on HARD this week —
  W 6-0 6-3 (1466), W 6-1 6-3 (1383), W 6-3 7-6 (1388), then L 3-6 6-7 SF
  vs Saigo (1479) yesterday 08-01. DOM over very weak fields (ELO 1383-1479),
  then lost the SF. Match-sharp on the surface but the level faced is bottom-
  tier ITF; shape STABLE-to-FADING (lost yesterday to a 1479).
  B (Yaneva, 19, #224): higher-level path — WTA Rome/Palermo, beat Lansere
  6-2 7-6, lost Trevisan/Urgesi; last match 07-20 Palermo (clay). Stronger
  opposition but all on CLAY/grass. 13 days off = rust risk, and clay->hard
  TRANSITION (looser timing, depressed level in match one).

FATIGUE (Step 2 calibration)
  A: 4 matches/7d, 283min, back_to_back 2, last match yesterday — but it was
  a 2-SET LOSS (no 3-set-hangover haircut, that applies only to yesterday's
  3-set WINNERS). A is 22 -> recovers fast, soften. Cumulative load is
  CONTEXT not an edge; not an extreme spot. Roughly neutral.
  B: 13 days idle, well-rested but rusty.

ELO vs RANKING
  A #138 yet ELO makes her the underdog (47%) — ELO does NOT overrate her
  despite ranking. B #224 yet ELO gives her 53% (built vs strong clay
  fields). ELO credible; no farmed-rating red flag driving the pick.

NARRATIVE
  No Final in window (letdown None). Surface transition on B (clay->hard) —
  a negative for B, mild support for A. No venue/title signals.

GATES
  G1 edge-origin: FAIL — no >=5% exchange edge on either side. Back B @2.0
    eff 1.95 (impl 51.3%): best model B 52.7% -> edge ~1.4%, ML B 47.2% ->
    negative. Back A @1.66 eff 1.627 (impl 61.5%): all models <=52.8% ->
    negative. Numeric edge absent before any narrative.
  G2 consensus: n/a (stake tier) — no bet.
  G3 fatal-risk: n/a — ML market, no bet.

MARKET CHOICE
  alt_markets: none at analysis time (handicap/totals null; only betfair_ml).
  AH: not quoted.
  No priced margin market; ML only. Neither ML side clears its min-odds bar.

VERDICT
  Model-vs-market DO disagree directionally (models ~50/50, market prices A
  at 60%), but the only side that disagreement points to (B) does not clear
  the 5% exchange-edge bar (~1.4% best case, negative on ML), and the
  qualitative read (B rusty 13d + clay->hard transition; A match-sharp on
  hard) supports the market's A-lean, not a B bet. No executable value
  either way. PASS.

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