TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in L. Fernandez vs H. Kinoshita (Sao Paulo on 2026-09-15) — the market is efficient, with L. Fernandez favoured at 1.05.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Fernandez | H. Kinoshita |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
83.3% | 16.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
93.1% | 6.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
44.8% | 55.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
73.7% | 26.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
90.0% | 10.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Fernandez | hard | 1823 | 124–86 | 210 |
| H. Kinoshita | hard | 1549 | 82–64 | 146 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Sept. 4, 2026.
| L | J. Pegula | 2 - 1 | Sept. 4, 2026 |
| W | M. Sawangkaew | 0 - 2 | Sept. 2, 2026 |
| W | S. Zhang | 0 - 2 | Aug. 30, 2026 |
| L | Xiy. Wang | 1 - 2 | Aug. 16, 2026 |
| L | N. Osaka | 0 - 2 | Aug. 9, 2026 |
| L | C. Brace | 0 - 2 | Sept. 13, 2026 |
| W | V. Rodriguez | 2 - 1 | Sept. 12, 2026 |
| L | O. Dodin | 2 - 0 | Sept. 3, 2026 |
| W | R. Munk Mortensen | 0 - 2 | Sept. 1, 2026 |
| L | D. Semenistaja | 2 - 0 | Aug. 25, 2026 |
All Sept. 15, 2026 results & picks →