TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in L. Draxl vs R. Bertola (Wimbledon on 2026-06-22) — the market is efficient, with R. Bertola favoured at 1.57.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Draxl | R. Bertola |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
20.1% | 79.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
47.1% | 52.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
20.1% | 79.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
41.1% | 58.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Draxl | hard | 1669 | 166–82 | 248 |
| R. Bertola | clay | 1579 | 137–99 | 236 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 26, 2026.
R. Bertola leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 22, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | R. Bertola | 2 - 1 |
| L | T. Samuel | 0 - 2 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | S. Mochizuki | 0 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | C. Chidekh | 2 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | A. Holmgren | 1 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | M. Hurrion | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | A. Ilagan | 2 - 0 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | J. Fearnley | 2 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | S. Johnson | 2 - 0 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | A. Mannarino | 2 - 0 | July 8, 2026 |
| L | M. Basing | 3 - 2 | June 25, 2026 |
All June 22, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used