L. Draxl vs A. Johnson — Prediction & Analysis

US Open · ATP US Open - Semi-finals · Aug. 26, 2026 · 21:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI bot is backing Under 21.5 games at 1.88 in L. Draxl vs A. Johnson (US Open on 2026-08-26). Result: WON.

Surface hard Odds L. Draxl 1.30 · A. Johnson 2.90

Bot bet

Under 21.5 games @ 1.88 · 0.5u
Result: WON
Read the reasoning on the bet sheet →
Profiles: L. Draxl · A. Johnson · head-to-head record · US Open

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method L. Draxl A. Johnson
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
75.9% 24.1%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
74.9% 25.1%
Serve / return
point-by-point simulation
60.1% 39.9%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
69.7% 30.3%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
69.0% 31.0%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
L. Draxl hard1646 168–85253
A. Johnson hard1431 13–821

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 28, 2026.

Head to head

L. Draxl leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
Aug. 26, 2026US OpenhardL. Draxl2 - 0

Recent form

L. Draxl

L T. Schoolkate 1 - 2 Aug. 28, 2026
W A. Johnson 2 - 0 Aug. 26, 2026
W N. Mejia 1 - 2 Aug. 25, 2026
L A. Andrade 0 - 2 Aug. 18, 2026
L D. Merida Aguilar 2 - 1 Aug. 4, 2026

A. Johnson

L T. Behrmann 1 - 2 Sept. 9, 2026
W D. Brand 2 - 1 Sept. 7, 2026
W A. Paparkar 2 - 0 Sept. 6, 2026
L L. Draxl 2 - 0 Aug. 26, 2026
W T. Daniel 1 - 2 Aug. 25, 2026

All Aug. 26, 2026 results & picks →

31 ATP & WTA matches analysed today. See today's predictions →