TennisEdge's AI bot is backing Under 21.5 games at 1.88 in L. Draxl vs A. Johnson (US Open on 2026-08-26). Result: WON.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Draxl | A. Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
75.9% | 24.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
74.9% | 25.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
60.1% | 39.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
69.7% | 30.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
69.0% | 31.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Draxl | hard | 1707 | 180–89 | 269 |
| A. Johnson | hard | 1396 | 14–9 | 23 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 11, 2026.
L. Draxl leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 26, 2026 | US Open | hard | L. Draxl | 2 - 0 |
| W | P. Nesterov | 2 - 0 | Nov. 11, 2026 |
| W | D. Chan | 2 - 0 | Nov. 9, 2026 |
| L | M. Kasnikowski | 0 - 2 | Nov. 4, 2026 |
| L | D. Dietrich | 2 - 1 | Nov. 1, 2026 |
| W | S. Dominko | 2 - 1 | Oct. 31, 2026 |
| L | W. Jansen | 0 - 2 | Oct. 29, 2026 |
| W | X. Palomar | 2 - 0 | Oct. 28, 2026 |
| L | S. Gorzny | 0 - 2 | Sept. 20, 2026 |
| L | T. Behrmann | 1 - 2 | Sept. 9, 2026 |
| W | D. Brand | 2 - 1 | Sept. 7, 2026 |
All Aug. 26, 2026 results & picks →