TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in L. Darderi vs Y. Hanfmann (Mallorca on 2026-06-23) — the market is efficient, with Y. Hanfmann favoured at 1.80.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Darderi | Y. Hanfmann |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
43.1% | 56.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
46.9% | 53.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
51.9% | 48.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
47.3% | 52.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
47.4% | 52.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Darderi | clay | 1922 | 193–101 | 294 |
| Y. Hanfmann | clay | 1810 | 123–82 | 205 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 25, 2026.
L. Darderi leads 6–0 over 6 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 23, 2026 | Mallorca | grass | L. Darderi | 2 - 0 |
| May 20, 2026 | Hamburg | clay | L. Darderi | 2 - 0 |
| May 8, 2026 | Rome | clay | L. Darderi | 2 - 0 |
| March 1, 2026 | Santiago | clay | L. Darderi | 2 - 0 |
| Feb. 9, 2024 | Cordoba | clay | L. Darderi | 2 - 0 |
| L | D. Svrcina | 0 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | A. Blockx | 2 - 1 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | J. Faria | 1 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | P. Martinez | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| L | A. Rublev | 2 - 0 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | B. Bonzi | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 0 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | S. Baez | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | M. Trungelliti | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | L. Neumayer | 0 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
All June 23, 2026 results & picks →
The mathematical models indicate a marginal 1.6% edge for Hanfmann, but this is offset by severe qualitative concerns. Hanfmann has lost all five previous meetings against Darderi and is fatigued from playing five matches and nearly eight hours of tennis over the last 14 days. Although Hanfmann possesses superior recent grass-court experience compared to Darderi, the combination of a terrible matchup and physical wear makes the slight mathematical edge untrustworthy, resulting in a pass.