TennisEdge's AI bot is backing L. Samson (moneyline) at 1.53 in L. Ciric Bagaric vs L. Samson (Ljubljana on 2026-09-15).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Ciric Bagaric | L. Samson |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
20.5% | 79.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
11.6% | 88.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
57.1% | 42.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
29.8% | 70.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
36.1% | 63.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Ciric Bagaric | clay | 1490 | 103–76 | 179 |
| L. Samson | clay | 1760 | 80–46 | 126 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Sept. 14, 2026.
| W | D. Chiesa | 1 - 2 | Sept. 14, 2026 |
| W | G. Price | 2 - 0 | Sept. 8, 2026 |
| W | D. Chiesa | 1 - 2 | Sept. 7, 2026 |
| W | J. Niemeier | 0 - 2 | Sept. 6, 2026 |
| L | E. Milovanovic | 2 - 1 | Aug. 25, 2026 |
| L | T. Zidansek | 1 - 2 | Aug. 25, 2026 |
| L | M. Barthel | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| W | K. Quevedo | 1 - 2 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | L. Bronzetti | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | M. Ristic | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
All Sept. 15, 2026 results & picks →