TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in L. Broady vs A. Holmgren (Wimbledon on 2026-06-22) — the market is efficient, with A. Holmgren favoured at 1.57.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Broady | A. Holmgren |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
47.3% | 52.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
46.3% | 53.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
45.1% | 54.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
41.1% | 58.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Broady | hard | 1610 | 209–114 | 323 |
| A. Holmgren | hard | 1624 | 118–73 | 191 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 29, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 22, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | A. Holmgren | 2 - 1 |
| April 18, 2026 | Busan | hard | L. Broady | 2 - 1 |
| L | J. D. Hara Friend | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | Y. Shimizu | 2 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | A. Vukic | 2 - 1 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | A. Michelsen | 0 - 2 | July 10, 2026 |
| W | A. Ilagan | 2 - 0 | July 9, 2026 |
| L | B. Shick | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | L. Draxl | 1 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | G. Johns | 2 - 1 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | A. Vukic | 2 - 1 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | J. Boulais | 2 - 0 | July 17, 2026 |
All June 22, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used