TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in Ka. Pliskova vs I. Swiatek (Wimbledon on 2026-07-02) — the market is efficient, with I. Swiatek favoured at 1.24.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | Ka. Pliskova | I. Swiatek |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
22.1% | 77.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
30.5% | 69.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
47.2% | 52.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
22.1% | 77.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
23.2% | 76.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ka. Pliskova | hard | 1747 | 77–47 | 124 |
| I. Swiatek | hard | 2021 | 184–49 | 233 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
I. Swiatek leads 3–0 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | I. Swiatek | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 9, 2023 | WTA Montreal | hard | I. Swiatek | 2 - 0 |
| April 21, 2023 | WTA Stuttgart | clay | I. Swiatek | 2 - 1 |
| W | O. Oliynykova | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | I. Swiatek | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | T. Valentova | 0 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | M. Bouzkova | 0 - 2 | June 20, 2026 |
| W | T. Gibson | 2 - 0 | June 19, 2026 |
| L | A. Eala | 2 - 0 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | Ka. Pliskova | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | T. Townsend | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | E. Navarro | 1 - 2 | June 24, 2026 |
| L | M. Kostyuk | 2 - 0 | May 31, 2026 |
All July 2, 2026 results & picks →
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Ka. Pliskova vs I. Swiatek — Wimbledon 1/32 (grass)
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MODELS
ELO : A 22.1% | B 77.9%
ML : A 30.5% | B 69.5%
S/R : A 47.2%
MODEL: A 22.1% | B 77.9%
MARKET
Odds : A 4.10 | B 1.24
Impl : A 23.2% | B 76.8%
Value: B (edge +1.1%)
ALIGNMENT
ELO 22.1% ≈ market 23.2% → efficient on the favorite line.
ML 30.5% and S/R 47.2% lean warmer on Pliskova (her big grass serve),
but neither is corroborated by ELO and the qualitative read cuts against it.
FORM
PLISKOVA (grass, last 90d): solid — Nottingham SF run, W vs
McNally(1764,Strong,GRIND 6-4 7-6), Gibson(DOM), Bejlek(GRIND 3-set),
Wimb R64 DOM vs Valentova(1592). L to Bouzkova(1700), Vekic(1746).
Real grass pedigree + serve, but grinding through 3-setters.
SWIATEK (last 90d): shaky by her standard — Wimb R64 GRIND vs
Townsend(1537, dropped set 6-1 2-6 6-3), L Bad Homburg to Navarro,
L French R16 to Kostyuk(1953). Grass her weakest surface. Still the
far superior overall player; class gap remains large.
FATIGUE
Pliskova: 5 matches / 14d, ~353 court-min, back-to-back x2, last 6/30.
Swiatek : 2 matches / 14d, ~170 court-min, well-spaced, last 6/30.
Court-time diff 183min (>60) → PLISKOVA heavily disadvantaged.
This kills the ML/S-R warm read on the underdog.
NARRATIVE
Let-down: none (no recent Final for either).
Venue: Swiatek not a grass venue-momentum story; Pliskova's grass
depth is her one live edge but negated by fatigue.
Title recency: none.
VERDICT — PASS
ELO matches the market; the model-warmth on Pliskova (ML/S-R) is not
a mutual-agreement edge and is contradicted by a heavy fatigue gap.
Backing Swiatek at 1.24 offers only ~1.1% edge on shaky grass form —
not enough to price a bet. No validated edge either way.
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