TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in K. Volynets vs T. Maria (Newport on 2026-07-12) — the market is efficient, with T. Maria favoured at 1.70.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | K. Volynets | T. Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
33.9% | 66.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
39.8% | 60.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
32.3% | 67.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
38.2% | 61.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
44.7% | 55.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Volynets | hard | 1758 | 111–90 | 201 |
| T. Maria | hard | 1566 | 112–109 | 221 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
K. Volynets leads 3–2 over 5 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 12, 2026 | Newport | grass | T. Maria | 2 - 0 |
| Feb. 3, 2026 | WTA Ostrava | hard | K. Volynets | 2 - 0 |
| July 1, 2025 | Wimbledon | grass | K. Volynets | 2 - 1 |
| Feb. 1, 2024 | Hua Hin | hard | K. Volynets | 2 - 1 |
| Feb. 4, 2022 | W60 Rome, GA | hard | T. Maria | 2 - 0 |
| L | D. Vidmanova | 2 - 1 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | I. Shymanovich | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | V. Golubic | 2 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | T. Maria | 0 - 2 | July 12, 2026 |
| W | G. Minnen | 0 - 2 | July 11, 2026 |
| L | C. McNally | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| W | I. Marton | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | R. Zarazua | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | T. Gibson | 0 - 2 | July 27, 2026 |
| W | K. Volynets | 0 - 2 | July 12, 2026 |
All July 12, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used