TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in K. Volynets vs A. Arseneault (Newport on 2026-07-06) — the market is efficient, with K. Volynets favoured at 1.06.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | K. Volynets | A. Arseneault |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
58.3% | 41.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
76.8% | 23.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
74.3% | 25.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
88.3% | 11.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Volynets | hard | 1758 | 111–90 | 201 |
| A. Arseneault | hard | 1450 | 51–48 | 99 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
K. Volynets leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 8, 2026 | Newport | grass | K. Volynets | 2 - 1 |
| L | D. Vidmanova | 2 - 1 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | I. Shymanovich | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | V. Golubic | 2 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | T. Maria | 0 - 2 | July 12, 2026 |
| W | G. Minnen | 0 - 2 | July 11, 2026 |
| L | J. Bouzas Maneiro | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | H. Sakatsume | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | A. Xu | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | T. Chavez | 1 - 2 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | L. Cabrera | 0 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
All July 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used