TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in K. Sebov vs T. Maria (Newport on 2026-07-09) — the market is efficient, with T. Maria favoured at 1.16.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | K. Sebov | T. Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
16.6% | 83.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
30.5% | 69.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
32.4% | 67.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
16.6% | 83.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
20.5% | 79.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 2, 2026.
T. Maria leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 9, 2026 | Newport | grass | T. Maria | 2 - 0 |
| W | A. Ito | 0 - 2 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | E. Kalieva | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | M. A. Teixido Garcia | 2 - 0 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | C. Soares | 2 - 0 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | T. Maria | 0 - 2 | July 9, 2026 |
| L | C. McNally | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| W | I. Marton | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | R. Zarazua | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | T. Gibson | 0 - 2 | July 27, 2026 |
| W | K. Volynets | 0 - 2 | July 12, 2026 |
All July 9, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used