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K. Scott vs S. Leon — Prediction & Analysis

Vancouver · · July 25, 2026 · 17:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in K. Scott vs S. Leon (Vancouver on 2026-07-25) — the market is efficient, with K. Scott favoured at 1.06.

Surface hard Odds K. Scott 1.06 · S. Leon 7.50

Verdict: no bet

The model found no value at current prices — the market has this one priced about right. That verdict is part of the public record too.
Profiles: K. Scott · S. Leon · head-to-head record

Full analysis

K. Scott vs S. Leon — Vancouver, hard

MODELS vs MARKET
  ELO prob A: 0.857 | ML prob A: 0.773 | Blended: 0.742
  Book: 1.06 / 7.50 (implied A 87.6 pct) | Betfair exchange: 1.04 / 17.5 (implied A ~96 pct, B ~6 pct)
  value_pick B, value_edge 13.5 pct vs BOOK — but the exchange prices B at 17.5, i.e. the executable market gives B only ~6 pct.

ELO/RANKING SANITY
  Scott: age 22, rank 319. Leon: age 56, rank 742. Every one of Leon's recent opponents carries a default 1500 ELO (W15 Gaborone, Botswana) — her rating and the ML features are built on unrated fields. The model's ~26 pct for Leon is not credible; the exchange price is the truth here.

RECENT FORM (top 5 each)
  Scott: L 2-6 2-6 Stoiana (1638, grass) 07-08 | L 3-6 2-6 Broadus (1529, hard) 07-01 | L 2-6 2-6 Brantmeier (1543) 06-04 | W 7-6 6-4 Pawlikowska (1375) 06-03 | L Final 1-6 4-6 Brengle (1615, clay) 05-24.
  Losing streak, but all losses to Strong/Avg (1529-1638) opposition at W100+ level. Surface transition grass to hard (last match), 17 days rest.
  Leon: L 0-6 2-6 (1500 dflt) 05-22 | W 6-2 6-1 (dflt) | W 6-0 6-0 (dflt) | L 3-set (dflt) 05-15 | earlier: L 1-6 3-6 to K. Novak (ELO 1203) at W35 Nottingham.
  No match in 2 months. Only calibrated data point: blown out by a 1203-ELO player.

FATIGUE
  Both 0 matches in 14d (brief fatigue block). Roughly equal — fatigue irrelevant; Leon's issue is a 2-month layoff, not load. Ages 22 vs 56: no fatigue penalty applied to either side.

NARRATIVE
  No let-down, no venue history, no titles. Scott TRANSITION grass to hard (mild rust risk, irrelevant to a pass).

GATES
  G1 edge-origin: FAIL — the model-vs-market gap on B (26 pct vs 6 pct) originates from ELO/ML inputs computed on default-1500 unrated W15 opponents; strip the junk rating and no numerical edge survives at the executable exchange price.
  G2 consensus:   FAIL — exchange (B ~6 pct) and qualitative evidence (Leon 56yo, rank 742, 2-month layoff, 1-6 3-6 loss to a 1203-ELO player) both sit against the model; no hard independent evidence for B.
  G3 fatal-risk:  FAIL — the thesis-negating risk is certain: Leon's entire rating basis is unrated fields, and her one calibrated result is a blowout loss to a far weaker player than Scott.

VERDICT: PASS. The value on Leon is a model artifact from unrated-opponent data; the exchange (17.5) kills it. Scott side offers nothing at 1.04. No alt markets priced. Predicted winner: K. Scott.

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