TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in K. Scott vs E. Schoppe (Vancouver on 2026-07-26) — the market is efficient, with K. Scott favoured at 1.24.
K. Scott vs E. Schoppe - Vancouver (hard), Final MODELS vs MARKET ELO 71.4% | ML 70.5% | Sim 71.8% (Scott) Book: 1.24 / 3.50 (implied 73.8% A) | Betfair exchange: 1.17 / 5.80 (implied ~85.5% A) Exchange prices Scott far above all three models - the only numeric gap on this card is on the Schoppe side (model 28.2% vs exchange-effective 18.0%). ELO/RANKING SANITY Scott rank 319, Schoppe 594 - rank gap agrees directionally with the ELO edge. BUT Schoppe has only 2 matches in the 90d window, so her ELO/ML input is a near-default thin-sample rating; the models 28% for her is not trustworthy. RECENT FORM (most recent first) Scott: 07-25 Vancouver SF W 6-1 6-1 vs Leon (ELO 1181) - DOM vs Weak; 07-08 Newport L 2-6 2-6 vs Stoiana (1638); 07-01 Cary L 3-6 2-6 vs Broadus (1529); 06-04 Sumter L 2-6 2-6 vs Brantmeier (1543); 06-03 Sumter W 7-6 6-4 vs Pawlikowska (1375) - GRIND vs Weak. Schoppe: 07-25 Vancouver SF W 6.5-7.7 7-5 6-2 vs Grubor (1347) - GRIND (tiebreak + 3 sets) vs Weak; 07-21 W35 Santa Fe L 3-6 4-6 vs Mahendran (1500). Read: the July losses for Scott came against 1500-1640 opposition; Schoppe just lost in straights to a 1500 player and needed three sets to beat a 1347. Class points to Scott despite her patchy month. FATIGUE Scott: 1 match / 53 min in 14d, last 07-25. Schoppe: 2 matches / 6 sets / 197 min, last 07-25. Court-time diff 144 min > 60 -> Schoppe disadvantaged. Ages 22 / 24 - no age softening for Schoppe (24, baseline recovery). NARRATIVE Let-down: none recent for either (the lost Pelham final for Scott was 05-24). Venue: both 1-0 at this event. Surface transition: none - both played hard most recently. Title recency: none in window. CANDIDATES 1) Schoppe ML @5.80 (exchange): numeric gap exists (28.2% model vs 18.0% eff-implied), but the model side of the gap is a 2-match thin-sample rating, and every qualitative signal sits against her: Scott 6-1 6-1 live this event, Schoppe lost to a 1500-ELO player 6 days ago, fatigue disadvantage. No independent validation - fails. 2) Scott ML @1.17 (exchange): my prob ~0.82 -> min odds 1.05/0.82 = 1.28 > 1.17. Automatic pass on the minimum-odds rule; even a generous 0.88 needs 1.19. 3) Handicap/totals: not priced (alt_markets null) - no independent margin read at this level. Stay ML. GATES (candidate: Schoppe ML @5.80) G1 edge-origin: PASS - 28.2% model vs 18.0% exchange-effective exists before any fatigue/narrative adjustment. G2 consensus: FAIL - market heavily against the pick and the only model support is a 2-match thin-sample rating; live this-event evidence (Scott 6-1 6-1, Schoppe 3-set grind vs a 1347 + W35 loss to a 1500) is hard independent evidence AGAINST the pick. G3 fatal-risk: FAIL - thesis requires trusting the near-default ELO for Schoppe; her straight-sets loss to a 1500 player six days ago directly negates it. VERDICT: PASS. The exchange has moved Scott to 1.17 for good reason (Schoppe is a rank-594 W35-level player on a thin sample the models cannot rate); no side clears the pricing bars. Predicted winner: K. Scott.