TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in K. Rakhimova vs M. Sakkari (Wimbledon on 2026-07-02) — the market is efficient, with M. Sakkari favoured at 1.60.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | K. Rakhimova | M. Sakkari |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
52.7% | 47.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
50.2% | 49.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
58.1% | 41.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
49.7% | 50.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
40.3% | 59.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Rakhimova | hard | 1705 | 109–97 | 206 |
| M. Sakkari | hard | 1846 | 109–78 | 187 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 2, 2026.
M. Sakkari leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | M. Sakkari | 2 - 1 |
| Aug. 8, 2025 | Cincinnati | hard | M. Sakkari | 2 - 1 |
| W | V. Williams | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | H. Watson | 0 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | M. Sakkari | 1 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | A. Kalinina | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | O. Selekhmeteva | 1 - 2 | June 20, 2026 |
| L | B. Krejcikova | 2 - 0 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | A. Korneeva | 2 - 0 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | A. Parks | 0 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | H. Dart | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | P. Kudermetova | 0 - 2 | July 13, 2026 |
All July 2, 2026 results & picks →
═══════════════════════════════════════════════ K. Rakhimova (A) vs M. Sakkari (B) Wimbledon · grass · 1/32-finals · 2026-07-02 ═══════════════════════════════════════════════ MODELS ELO prob_A 52.7% ML prob_A 50.2% Model prob_A 49.7% (consensus 53.7%) Serve/Return prob_A 58.1% Market: A 2.37 (impl 40.3%) | B 1.60 (impl 59.7%) Value pick A, edge +9.4% (post-shrink) — sourced from a near-coinflip model devigged vs a heavy market. FORM — Rakhimova (grass) 6/30 W vs Kalinina (1620/Avg) 6-4 4-6 7-5 GRIND, 3 sets 6/20 L vs Selekhmeteva (1456/Weak) 1-2 — poor loss to weak field 6/13 L vs Raducanu (1778/Strong) 3-6 5-7 6/12 W vs Dart (1635/Avg) GRIND, 3 sets 6/07 L vs Maria (1741/Strong) London FINAL, 4-6 3-6 Read: reached a grass Final but ALL wins are grinds; recent bad loss to a sub-1500 opponent. FORM — Sakkari (grass) 6/30 W vs Tauson (1654/Avg) 6-3 6-3 DOM, 58 min 6/15 L vs Zheng (1690/Strong) 3 sets 6/09 L vs Maria (1760/Strong) 3-6 3-6 Read: opened Wimbledon with a clean DOM in 58 min — sharpest live signal in this matchup. FATIGUE Rakhimova: 2 matches/14d, ~193 min court time (two 3-setters) Sakkari: 1 match/14d, 58 min court time Diff 135 min > 60 → Rakhimova disadvantaged. Sakkari materially fresher. NARRATIVE Let-down: Rakhimova lost London Final 6/7 (24d ago) — outside window, no live let-down. Venue: neither has Wimbledon history in sample (Sakkari's slam form: FO R16). Title recency: none. VERDICT Model edge on A is an artifact of a coinflip model devigged against a strong market. Qualitative read runs the OTHER way: Sakkari fresh + DOM'd a decent opponent; Rakhimova grinds everything and just lost to a weak player, carrying 3x the court-time load. Live form + fatigue both validate the MARKET favorite (Sakkari), not the value pick. Edge killed → PASS. ═══════════════════════════════════════════════