TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in K. Quevedo vs L. Samson (Targu Mures (Romania) - Qualification on 2026-08-02) — the market is efficient, with K. Quevedo favoured at 1.83.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | K. Quevedo | L. Samson |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
53.4% | 46.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
60.2% | 39.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
60.9% | 39.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
56.4% | 43.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
51.6% | 48.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Quevedo | clay | 1748 | 90–49 | 139 |
| L. Samson | hard | 1613 | 103–62 | 165 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 2, 2026.
L. Samson leads 3–1 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 2, 2026 | Targu Mures (Romania) - Qualification | clay | L. Samson | 2 - 1 |
| June 12, 2026 | Modena (Italy) - Qualification | clay | L. Samson | 2 - 0 |
| June 5, 2025 | W35 Klagenfurt | clay | K. Quevedo | 2 - 1 |
| June 5, 2024 | Girls French Open | clay | L. Samson | 2 - 1 |
| L | L. Samson | 1 - 2 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | F. Jones | 1 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | C. Monnet | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | I. Burillo Escorihuela | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | I. Fetecau | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | M. Barthel | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| W | K. Quevedo | 1 - 2 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | L. Bronzetti | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | M. Ristic | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | A. Soboleva | 0 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
All Aug. 2, 2026 results & picks →
K. Quevedo (A, age 20, rank 139) vs L. Samson (B, age 18, rank 203) - Targu Mures Qualification FINAL, clay. MODELS vs MARKET ELO A 53.4pct | ML A 60.2pct | blended 56.4pct. Book A 1.83/B 1.95; Betfair(exec) A 1.74 (impl 57.5pct)/B 2.30 (impl 43.5pct). Market sits squarely between ELO and ML - no model meaningfully beats the exchange. Book value on A (4.8pct vs 1.83) is a stale quote: Betfair prices A at 1.74, which erases it. RECENT FORM (last 5) Quevedo: 08-01 W Jones(1804) 7-6 (grind, over Strong) | 07-31 W Monnet(1585) 7-6 6-3 (grind) | 07-29 W Burillo(1500) 7-5 6-1 | 07-27 W Fetecau(1500) 6-1 6-3 (dom). Path: 4 deep, match-sharp on clay; STABLE, grinding tiebreaks. Samson: 08-01 W Bronzetti(1729) 7-5 6-4 (over Strong) | 07-31 W Ristic(1643) 7-6 4-6 6-2 (grind) | 07-30 W Soboleva ret. 4-2 | 07-28 W Breaz(1500) 6-4 6-3. Path: 4 deep, match-sharp; SHARPENING (solid SF over Strong). H2H: Samson beat Quevedo 6-3 6-4 on clay at Modena Q, 2026-06-12 (~7wk ago) - recent on-surface lean to the dog, but does not create numeric edge at 2.30. FATIGUE: Both 4 matches/7d, ~equal court time (Q 417m / S 477m), both won a 2-set match yesterday (no 3-set hangover haircut). Both very young (20/18), recover fast. Roughly equal, non-factor. NARRATIVE: Both in a qualification Final - no letdown. Both on clay throughout - no transition. ELO~rank broadly coherent, ELO trustworthy. EDGES (commission-adj, exec prices) ML A @1.74: -2.3pct | ML B @2.30: -1.1pct (model), +1.8pct (ELO only) - below 5pct bar. Handicap A -1.5 @1.89: +2.2pct | B +1.5 @2.02: -7.2pct - below bar. Total 21.5: over -4.5pct | under +0.4pct - below bar. AH: B +1.5 @ 2.02 (passed, no dog ML staked >=3.0). GATES G1 edge-origin: FAIL - no market clears 5pct at executable Betfair prices. G2 consensus: PASS (tier only) - models bracket the market. G3 fatal-risk: n/a - no bet. VERDICT: PASS. Exchange price sits between the models; the H2H is a mild qualitative lean to Samson but insufficient to manufacture numeric edge at 2.30. No executable value in any market.