K. Nishikori vs M. Antonius — Prediction & Analysis

US Open · ATP US Open - Semi-finals · Aug. 26, 2026 · 15:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI bot is backing K. Nishikori (moneyline) at 1.65 in K. Nishikori vs M. Antonius (US Open on 2026-08-26). Result: WON.

Surface hard Odds K. Nishikori 1.88 · M. Antonius 1.88

Bot bet

K. Nishikori (moneyline) @ 1.65 · 0.5u
Result: WON
Read the reasoning on the bet sheet →
Profiles: K. Nishikori · M. Antonius · head-to-head record · US Open

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method K. Nishikori M. Antonius
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
73.8% 26.2%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
81.6% 18.4%
Serve / return
point-by-point simulation
32.8% 67.2%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
58.5% 41.5%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
50.0% 50.0%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
K. Nishikori hard1714 61–3192
M. Antonius hard1440 8–412

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 28, 2026.

Head to head

K. Nishikori leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
Aug. 26, 2026US OpenhardK. Nishikori2 - 0

Recent form

K. Nishikori

L R. Sakamoto 0 - 2 Aug. 28, 2026
W M. Antonius 2 - 0 Aug. 26, 2026
W S. Ofner 1 - 2 Aug. 25, 2026
L M. Trungelliti 2 - 1 Aug. 13, 2026
W F. Comesana 2 - 1 Aug. 11, 2026

M. Antonius

L S. Massellani 0 - 2 Sept. 7, 2026
W F. L. Storck 2 - 0 Sept. 6, 2026
L K. Nishikori 2 - 0 Aug. 26, 2026
W H. Searle 2 - 0 Aug. 25, 2026
W I. M. Fahim 0 - 2 July 19, 2026

All Aug. 26, 2026 results & picks →

31 ATP & WTA matches analysed today. See today's predictions →