TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in K. Muchova vs C. Gauff (Wimbledon on 2026-07-09) — the market is efficient, with K. Muchova favoured at 1.92.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | K. Muchova | C. Gauff |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
61.5% | 38.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
53.9% | 46.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
73.0% | 27.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
59.3% | 40.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
51.0% | 49.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Muchova | hard | 2060 | 106–43 | 149 |
| C. Gauff | hard | 2045 | 155–60 | 215 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 26, 2026.
C. Gauff leads 6–2 over 8 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 9, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | K. Muchova | 2 - 1 |
| April 17, 2026 | Stuttgart | clay | K. Muchova | 2 - 1 |
| March 26, 2026 | Miami | hard | C. Gauff | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 25, 2026 | WTA Australian Open | hard | C. Gauff | 2 - 1 |
| Jan. 4, 2025 | United Cup | hard | C. Gauff | 2 - 0 |
| L | L. Noskova | 1 - 2 | July 11, 2026 |
| W | C. Gauff | 2 - 1 | July 9, 2026 |
| W | N. Osaka | 0 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | B. Krejcikova | 2 - 1 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | M. Sawangkaew | 2 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
All July 9, 2026 results & picks →
═══ K. Muchova vs C. Gauff — Wimbledon SF (grass) ═══
MODELS vs MARKET
Odds: Muchova 1.92 (impl 51.0%) | Gauff 2.00 (impl 50.0%) | Betfair 1.91/2.06
ELO: 61.5% A | ML: 53.9% A | Blend: 59.3% A → flagged value A (+8.3%)
Alignment: ML ~agrees with market; only ELO disagrees. ELO is riding a 10-match
grass win streak and does not see the fatigue load.
RECENT FORM (last 5 each)
Muchova (10W streak on grass, 9-1 last 10):
07-07 W Osaka (1855, Elite-ish) GRIND — TB set
07-05 W Krejcikova (1873, Strong) GRIND — 7-5 5-7 6-3
07-03 W Sawangkaew (1706, Strong) GRIND — 7-6 set
07-01 W Zhang (1656, Strong) DOM
06-29 W Zakharova (1675, Strong) DOM
TITLE: Bad Homburg 11d ago (grass). Venue: Wimbledon 5-0 this event.
Gauff (5-0 at Wimbledon):
07-07 W Pegula (1926, Elite) GRIND — 3 sets
07-05 W Bencic (1891, Elite) GRIND — 3 sets
07-03 W Liu (1688, Strong) GRIND — TB + 3 sets
07-01 W Sierra (1657, Strong) GRIND — TB + 3 sets
06-29 W Korpatsch (1332, Weak) DOM
FATIGUE (14d)
Muchova: 9 matches, 27 sets, 569 min, 3 back-to-backs, last 07-07
Gauff: 5 matches, 15 sets, 427 min, 0 back-to-backs, last 07-07
Court-time diff 142 min → Muchova heavily disadvantaged. Clear Gauff edge.
NARRATIVE
Let-down: Bad Homburg Final won 11d ago → outside window, None.
H2H: Muchova beat Gauff Stuttgart QF (Apr, clay) — pre-fatigue-load, different surface.
ALT MARKETS
AH only ±0.5 (ML proxy). Model alt probs internally inconsistent (A covers -2.5
at 66% > A ML 59%) → untrusted. Total 22.5: model 60% under, but both players are
stacking 3-setters/TBs — independent read leans long, not under. No stakeable edge.
VERDICT: PASS
The lone model edge (ELO on Muchova) is contradicted, not validated, by the
qualitative read: 569 court-min / 27 sets / 3 back-to-backs vs a fresher Elite
opponent in a Slam SF. Gauff fatigue case (~52% at 2.06) is too thin and backed
by no model. Market at pick'em looks efficient.