TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in K. Khachanov vs Y. Hanfmann (Wimbledon on 2026-07-02) — the market is efficient, with K. Khachanov favoured at 1.36.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | K. Khachanov | Y. Hanfmann |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
71.9% | 28.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
51.0% | 49.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
59.4% | 40.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
71.9% | 28.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
71.9% | 28.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Khachanov | hard | 1781 | 120–84 | 204 |
| Y. Hanfmann | clay | 1810 | 123–82 | 205 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 30, 2026.
K. Khachanov leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | K. Khachanov | 3 - 0 |
| L | B. Tomic | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | F. Cobolli | 2 - 3 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | Y. Hanfmann | 3 - 0 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | B. Harris | 3 - 1 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | M. Damm | 0 - 2 | June 24, 2026 |
| W | B. Bonzi | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 0 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | S. Baez | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | M. Trungelliti | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | L. Neumayer | 0 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
All July 2, 2026 results & picks →
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K. Khachanov vs Y. Hanfmann
Wimbledon (grass) — 1/32-finals — 2026-07-02
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MODELS
ELO : A 71.9% (market-matched)
ML : A 51.0% (coin-flip — disagrees hard w/ ELO & market)
Serve/Ret: A 59.4%
Model : A 71.9% Conf: low (0.22)
Market : A 1.36 (imp 71.9%) | B 3.48 (imp 28.1%)
Value edge: +0.0002 on B → nil
FORM (last 90d)
Khachanov (grass thin):
W B.Harris (1693 Strong) 6-3 5-7 6-3 6-3 Wimb R1, 2d — GRIND
L M.Damm (exho) 3-6 4-6
L E.Quinn (1481 Weak) Halle 1-2 after 6-1 set1
-> Clay pedigree strong (Rome QF, beat 1908/1761), but GRASS 1-2, shaky.
Hanfmann (grass-comfortable):
W Mpetshi Perricard (1739 Strong) 6-7 7-6 6-2 6-3 Wimb R1, 2d — GRIND
L Darderi (1553) Mallorca
W Vallejo (1797 Strong) 7-6 7-6 — GRIND
L Zverev (1850 Elite) Halle 3-6 6-7 — competitive
W Fonseca (1635 Avg) 6-2 6-2 — DOM
W Kovacevic (1432 Weak) 7-6 7-6 — GRIND
-> Grass 4-3, beats Strong tier, one DOM. Legit grass level.
FATIGUE
Khachanov: 3 matches/14d, ~333 court min
Hanfmann : 5 matches/14d, ~498 court min
Diff >60min -> Hanfmann heavier load, slight disadvantage. Both 2d rest.
NARRATIVE
Let-down : None (no recent Finals either side)
Venue : Both live at Wimbledon, R1 wins.
Title : None recent.
VERDICT: PASS
ELO and market are glued at 71.9% (efficient favorite price 1.36 = no value).
ML dissents to 51% but the qualitative read does NOT validate backing the dog:
Khachanov is clearly the higher-tier player and Hanfmann carries the fatigue
load. Hanfmann's grass edge (comfortable, grinds out Strong-tier) makes the dog
live enough to keep the fav OFF a bet, but not live enough to back at 3.48
against a top-15 hitter. No positive-EV side. Pass.