TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in K. Kawa vs L. Stefanini (Wimbledon on 2026-06-24) — the market is efficient, with K. Kawa favoured at 1.55.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | K. Kawa | L. Stefanini |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
50.6% | 49.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
45.2% | 54.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
47.9% | 52.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
61.3% | 38.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Kawa | clay | 1713 | 106–66 | 172 |
| L. Stefanini | hard | 1644 | 116–80 | 196 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 22, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 24, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | K. Kawa | 2 - 1 |
| Oct. 18, 2023 | WTA Monastir | hard | L. Stefanini | 2 - 0 |
| W | L. Fruhvirtova | 2 - 1 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | P. Badosa | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | P. Udvardy | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | S. Waltert | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | S. Waltert | 2 - 0 | July 6, 2026 |
| L | C. Osorio | 0 - 2 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | S. Kenin | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | Y. Ku | 0 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | M. Sawangkaew | 2 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | A. Akli | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
All June 24, 2026 results & picks →
The model identifies a significant 9.5% edge on underdog L. Stefanini, driven primarily by the ML model's low projection for Kawa (45.2%). However, this output conflicts with key qualitative data: Kawa is a 'Strong Specialist' on grass in excellent form (12-3), whereas Stefanini is struggling (5-10). Crucially, the Market-Elo Trend indicates Kawa is 'undervalued' (market lagging results), suggesting the 1.55 odds offer value, contradicting the model's suggestion to fade her. With the model lacking serve/return data and the market trend opposing the bet, the 'value' on Stefanini appears to be a trap.