TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in K. Jacquet vs G. Da Rosa Castro (Estoril on 2026-07-18) — the market is efficient, with K. Jacquet favoured at 1.03.
═══ K. Jacquet vs G. Da Rosa Castro — Estoril (clay) ═══
MODELS vs MARKET
Market: A 1.03 (95.1%) / B 20.09 (5.0%)
ELO: 63.1% A | ML: 86.2% A | Blend: 81.4% A
Backend flags B as value (+13.7%) — artifact, see below.
RECENT FORM (last 5 shown; full history used)
Jacquet (15 matches, 90d):
07-13 Umag R32 — L vs Trungelliti (1736): 2-6 3-6 (DOM loss)
07-02 Wimbledon Q — L vs Bublik (1818): 3 sets w/ TB (GRIND)
06-30 Wimbledon Q — W vs Gaubas (1630): GRIND (TB)
06-25 Wimbledon Q Final — W vs Skatov (1599): GRIND (TB) — TITLE 23d ago (grass)
06-24 Wimbledon Q SF — W vs Guerrieri (1674): GRIND (TB)
Clay pedigree: French Open qualifying title run in May (W QF/SF/Final).
Da Rosa Castro (3 matches, 90d — thin sample):
07-16 M15 Castelo Branco — L vs Izquierdo Luque (1500): 6-4 6-1 (DOM loss)
07-15 M15 Castelo Branco — W vs Alam (1500): DOM
05-20 M15 Monastir — L vs Tepmahc (1500): DOM loss
Profile: loses decisively at M15 level to 1500-ELO opponents.
FATIGUE
Jacquet: 1 match/14d, 3 sets, ~91min, last 07-13 (5d rest) — fresh.
Da Rosa Castro: 2 matches/14d, back-to-back 07-15/16, ~152min — light load.
Verdict: roughly equal; no fatigue angle.
NARRATIVE
Let-down: Jacquet title 06-25 is 23d old — none. Venue: no Estoril history either side.
VERDICT: PASS
The model-market gap on B is a data artifact: B's ELO defaults ~1500 on a 3-match
M15 sample, so ELO (63%) massively understates the class gap between an active
tour-qualies grinder with a clay quali title and a player losing M15 first rounds.
The market at 1.03 prices reality. Backing B at 20.09 needs ~5% win prob — the
qualitative read says far less. A at 1.03 offers no value. No alt markets priced.