TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in K. Collins vs K. Swan (Caldas da Rainha on 2026-09-15) — the market is efficient, with K. Swan favoured at 1.25.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | K. Collins | K. Swan |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
24.6% | 75.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
23.8% | 76.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
16.0% | 84.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
21.4% | 78.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
25.0% | 75.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Collins | hard | 1435 | 25–34 | 59 |
| K. Swan | hard | 1630 | 113–52 | 165 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Sept. 14, 2026.
| W | R. Brantmeier | 0 - 2 | Sept. 14, 2026 |
| W | E. Yashina | 0 - 2 | Sept. 13, 2026 |
| L | I. Dapkute | 2 - 1 | Sept. 9, 2026 |
| L | T. Valentova | 0 - 2 | Aug. 27, 2026 |
| W | A. Zakharova | 0 - 2 | Aug. 25, 2026 |
| L | M. Jorge | 0 - 0 | Sept. 11, 2026 |
| W | M. Rapolu | 1 - 2 | Sept. 10, 2026 |
| W | M. E. Reasco Gonzalez | 0 - 2 | Sept. 8, 2026 |
| L | M. Stoiana | 1 - 2 | Aug. 26, 2026 |
| W | K. Scott | 2 - 0 | Aug. 25, 2026 |
All Sept. 15, 2026 results & picks →