TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in K. Collins vs A. Smith (Newport on 2026-07-06) — the market is efficient, with A. Smith favoured at 1.57.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | K. Collins | A. Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
38.0% | 62.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
35.4% | 64.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
38.0% | 62.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
41.1% | 58.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Collins | hard | 1381 | 21–31 | 52 |
| A. Smith | hard | 1360 | 37–55 | 92 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
K. Collins leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 8, 2026 | Newport | grass | K. Collins | 2 - 0 |
| Dec. 4, 2024 | W50 Tampa, FL | clay | K. Collins | 2 - 1 |
| L | A. Kulikova | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | S. Saito | 1 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | M. Rapolu | 1 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | E. Koike | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | R. Marino | 0 - 2 | July 16, 2026 |
| L | Y. Yuan | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Gorska | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | D. Kasatkina | 2 - 1 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | L. Ma | 0 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | K. Collins | 2 - 0 | July 8, 2026 |
All July 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used