TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in K. Boulter vs T. C. Grant (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29) — the market is efficient, with K. Boulter favoured at 1.44.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | K. Boulter | T. C. Grant |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
46.3% | 53.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
68.0% | 32.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
46.3% | 53.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
65.6% | 34.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Boulter | hard | 1758 | 102–70 | 172 |
| T. C. Grant | clay | 1709 | 50–24 | 74 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
T. C. Grant leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | T. C. Grant | 2 - 0 |
| L | K. Cross | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | A. Krueger | 2 - 1 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | T. C. Grant | 0 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | L. Fernandez | 1 - 2 | June 21, 2026 |
| L | D. Vekic | 0 - 2 | June 13, 2026 |
| L | M. Trevisan | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | M. Bouzkova | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | K. Boulter | 0 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| W | H. Tan | 0 - 2 | June 25, 2026 |
| W | J. Garland | 0 - 2 | June 24, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
K. Boulter vs T. C. Grant -- Wimbledon (grass), 1/64-finals MODELS: ELO A 0.463 | ML A 0.680 | model A 0.463 | market A 0.656 (odds 1.44/2.75). Value_pick B, edge +0.19. ELO and ML DISAGREE; market sides with ML on Boulter. FORM (Boulter, grass): W Rybakina (1869 ELITE) 5-7 6-2 6-4 GRIND; W Fernandez (1672) GRIND; W Cristian (1479) 6-1 6-3 DOM; reached London SF; L Vekic (1767) 1-6 3-6; L Fernandez (1623) 7-6 3-6. Genuine WTA-level wins vs Strong/Elite opposition on grass. FORM (Grant): massive win streak across W35/W75/ITF + Madrid + 'Wimbledon' title (this dataset). Won Wimbledon Final 06-25 vs Tan (1713) 6-4 7-6. Best opponents beaten ~1660-1713; bulk of streak vs Weak/Avg (<1600) fields. ELO inflated by volume of wins, not quality. FATIGUE: A 2 matches/14d, 151min, last 06-21 (9d rest -- well recovered). B 3 matches/14d, 218min, back-to-back title run, last 06-25 (5d rest). Court diff 67min favors A, but both recovered. NARRATIVE: Grant LET-DOWN -- won Wimbledon title 5d ago (WEAK, recovery time enough). TITLE: Wimbledon 5d ago (grass). Venue: neutral. VERDICT: The ELO/value edge on Grant is a streak-inflation trap -- wins built on weak fields. Qualitative read (opponent quality > win count) favors Boulter, who beat an Elite (Rybakina) on grass. ML + market agree on Boulter, but 1.44 offers no value (ML 0.68 vs implied 0.656 = ~2pt). No validated edge in either direction. PASS.