TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Tjen vs C. McNally (Eastbourne on 2026-06-22) — the market is efficient, with C. McNally favoured at 1.48.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Tjen | C. McNally |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
19.4% | 80.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
46.5% | 53.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
32.9% | 67.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
35.9% | 64.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Tjen | hard | 1759 | 106–31 | 137 |
| C. McNally | hard | 1736 | 85–66 | 151 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
C. McNally leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 23, 2026 | Eastbourne | grass | C. McNally | 2 - 1 |
| July 25, 2025 | W100 Evansville | hard | C. McNally | 2 - 0 |
| L | L. Samsonova | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | A. Kalinskaya | 1 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | R. Sramkova | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | D. Kasatkina | 1 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | L. Fernandez | 0 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| W | T. Maria | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | K. Liutova | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | Y. Ma | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | Xiy. Wang | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | E. Rybakina | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
All June 22, 2026 results & picks →
The mathematical model suggests a 3.0% edge on J. Tjen, but this is driven entirely by an aggressive ML model projection (46.5%) that is a massive outlier compared to the results-based ELO model (19.4%). Qualitative validation reveals Tjen is 1-3 on grass this season with losses to lower-ranked opponents, while the Market Trend framework explicitly warns that Tjen is 'over-priced' because the market is chasing form (+20 drift) despite poor results. With the models in sharp disagreement and market signals contradicting the value pick, the edge is not trusted.