TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Sinner vs M. Kecmanovic (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29) — the market is efficient, with J. Sinner favoured at 1.03.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Sinner | M. Kecmanovic |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
92.9% | 7.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
75.4% | 24.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
75.1% | 24.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
84.5% | 15.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
93.6% | 6.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Sinner | hard | 2299 | 219–45 | 264 |
| M. Kecmanovic | hard | 1734 | 98–98 | 196 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 29, 2026.
J. Sinner leads 4–0 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 29, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | J. Sinner | 3 - 2 |
| July 5, 2024 | ATP Wimbledon | grass | J. Sinner | 3 - 0 |
| Aug. 17, 2022 | Cincinnati | hard | J. Sinner | 1 - 0 |
| Feb. 5, 2021 | Melbourne (Great Ocean Road Open) | hard | J. Sinner | 2 - 0 |
| W | A. Zverev | 3 - 1 | July 12, 2026 |
| W | N. Djokovic | 3 - 0 | July 10, 2026 |
| W | J-L. Struff | 3 - 0 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | S. Mochizuki | 3 - 0 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | J. Brooksby | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | M. Zheng | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | S. Baez | 2 - 1 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | J. M. Cerundolo | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | K. Feldbausch | 1 - 2 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | J. Sinner | 3 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used