TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Sinner vs D. Medvedev (Rome on 2026-05-15) — the market is efficient, with J. Sinner favoured at 1.07.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Sinner | D. Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
71.4% | 28.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
75.7% | 24.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
85.9% | 14.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
77.7% | 22.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
89.4% | 10.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Sinner | hard | 2299 | 219–45 | 264 |
| D. Medvedev | hard | 1994 | 207–77 | 284 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 29, 2026.
J. Sinner leads 11–5 over 16 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Rome | clay | J. Sinner | 2 - 1 |
| March 15, 2026 | ATP Indian Wells | hard | J. Sinner | 2 - 0 |
| Nov. 14, 2024 | ATP Finals - Turin | hard | J. Sinner | 2 - 0 |
| Oct. 16, 2024 | Six Kings Slam | hard | J. Sinner | 2 - 0 |
| Oct. 10, 2024 | ATP Shanghai | hard | J. Sinner | 2 - 0 |
| W | A. Zverev | 3 - 1 | July 12, 2026 |
| W | N. Djokovic | 3 - 0 | July 10, 2026 |
| W | J-L. Struff | 3 - 0 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | S. Mochizuki | 3 - 0 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | J. Brooksby | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| L | J-L. Struff | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Merida Aguilar | 1 - 3 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | M. Cilic | 0 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | D. Altmaier | 2 - 1 | June 19, 2026 |
| W | T. Atmane | 0 - 2 | June 17, 2026 |
All May 15, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used