TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in C. Ruud vs L. Darderi (Rome on 2026-05-15) — the market is efficient, with C. Ruud favoured at 1.35.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | C. Ruud | L. Darderi |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
49.6% | 50.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
41.2% | 58.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
39.3% | 60.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
43.4% | 56.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
70.2% | 29.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Ruud | hard | 1866 | 119–78 | 197 |
| L. Darderi | clay | 1922 | 193–101 | 294 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated April 4, 2026.
C. Ruud leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2026 | Rome | clay | C. Ruud | 2 - 0 |
| L | J. M. Cerundolo | 2 - 1 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | J. Faria | 1 - 2 | July 16, 2026 |
| L | H. Hurkacz | 0 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | B. Shelton | 0 - 2 | June 25, 2026 |
| L | J. Fonseca | 1 - 3 | May 31, 2026 |
| L | D. Svrcina | 0 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | A. Blockx | 2 - 1 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | J. Faria | 1 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | P. Martinez | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| L | A. Rublev | 2 - 0 | July 19, 2026 |
All May 15, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used