TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Riera vs L. Samson (French Open on 2026-05-19) — the market is efficient, with J. Riera favoured at 1.83.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Riera | L. Samson |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
43.7% | 56.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
39.5% | 60.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
57.5% | 42.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
46.9% | 53.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
50.0% | 50.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 26, 2026.
J. Riera leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 19, 2026 | French Open | clay | J. Riera | 2 - 1 |
| W | L. Perez Alarcon | 2 - 0 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | L. Pigossi | 2 - 0 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | N. V. Leme Da Silva | 2 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | C. Bohrer Martins | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | G. Schincariol Delatorre Barbosa | 2 - 0 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | M. Barthel | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| W | K. Quevedo | 1 - 2 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | L. Bronzetti | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | M. Ristic | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | A. Soboleva | 0 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
All May 19, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used