TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Riera vs F. Crawley (Wimbledon on 2026-06-24) — the market is efficient, with J. Riera favoured at 1.80.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Riera | F. Crawley |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
47.0% | 53.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
51.6% | 48.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
47.0% | 53.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
51.5% | 48.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Riera | clay | 1648 | 164–91 | 255 |
| F. Crawley | hard | 1629 | 70–29 | 99 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 26, 2026.
F. Crawley leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 24, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | F. Crawley | 2 - 1 |
| W | L. Perez Alarcon | 2 - 0 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | L. Pigossi | 2 - 0 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | N. V. Leme Da Silva | 2 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | C. Bohrer Martins | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | G. Schincariol Delatorre Barbosa | 2 - 0 | July 22, 2026 |
All June 24, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used