TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Ponchet vs P. Hon (French Open on 2026-05-19) — the market is efficient, with J. Ponchet favoured at 1.44.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Ponchet | P. Hon |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
66.5% | 33.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
74.2% | 25.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
70.3% | 29.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
64.5% | 35.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Ponchet | hard | 1520 | 146–111 | 257 |
| P. Hon | hard | 1628 | 144–83 | 227 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 26, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 19, 2026 | French Open | clay | J. Ponchet | 2 - 0 |
| June 14, 2022 | W100 Ilkley | grass | P. Hon | 2 - 1 |
| L | P. Kudermetova | 2 - 1 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | L. Fruhvirtova | 2 - 0 | May 20, 2026 |
| W | P. Hon | 2 - 0 | May 19, 2026 |
| L | A. Lazaro Garcia | 0 - 2 | May 9, 2026 |
| W | M. Chwalinska | 1 - 2 | May 8, 2026 |
| L | T. Preston | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | E. Schoppe | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | T. Valentova | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | C. Y. Lee | 0 - 2 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | K. K. Thandi | 1 - 0 | July 18, 2026 |
All May 19, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used