TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Pinnington Jones vs C. Ugo Carabelli (Eastbourne on 2026-06-22) — the market is efficient, with J. Pinnington Jones favoured at 1.40.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Pinnington Jones | C. Ugo Carabelli |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
90.0% | 10.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
65.2% | 34.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
90.0% | 10.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
68.2% | 31.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Pinnington Jones | hard | 1646 | 74–50 | 124 |
| C. Ugo Carabelli | clay | 1796 | 208–111 | 319 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 29, 2026.
| L | T. Samuel | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | B. Nakashima | 3 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | J. Draper | 2 - 0 | June 24, 2026 |
| W | M. Trungelliti | 2 - 1 | June 22, 2026 |
| L | D. Shapovalov | 1 - 2 | June 15, 2026 |
| L | C. Norrie | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | T. Droguet | 2 - 1 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | R. A. Burruchaga | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | P. Carreno-Busta | 1 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | M. Topo | 1 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
All June 22, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used