AI match preview for J. Pegula vs M. Andreeva (Finals - Riyadh on 2026-11-14): models, form and the market read. No bot verdict is published for this match yet. M. Andreeva is the market favourite at 1.49.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Pegula | M. Andreeva |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
47.6% | 52.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
42.6% | 57.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
42.5% | 57.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
44.2% | 55.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
33.5% | 66.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Pegula | hard | 2074 | 206–79 | 285 |
| M. Andreeva | hard | 2022 | 109–42 | 151 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 12, 2026.
| W | L. Noskova | 2 - 1 | Nov. 12, 2026 |
| W | M. Kostyuk | 0 - 2 | Nov. 10, 2026 |
| L | C. Gauff | 2 - 1 | Nov. 8, 2026 |
| L | J. Ostapenko | 2 - 1 | Oct. 14, 2026 |
| L | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 0 | Sept. 10, 2026 |
| W | D. Shnaider | 2 - 0 | Nov. 13, 2026 |
| W | A. Sabalenka | 0 - 2 | Nov. 11, 2026 |
| W | E. Svitolina | 2 - 0 | Nov. 9, 2026 |
| L | Q. Zheng | 2 - 0 | Oct. 11, 2026 |
| W | N. Bartunkova | 2 - 0 | Oct. 10, 2026 |
All Nov. 14, 2026 results & picks →