TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Pegula vs A. Eala (Washington on 2026-08-02) — the market is efficient, with J. Pegula favoured at 1.50.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Pegula | A. Eala |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
77.2% | 22.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
50.3% | 49.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
62.1% | 37.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
77.2% | 22.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
63.3% | 36.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 3, 2026 | Washington | hard | A. Eala | 2 - 1 |
| March 28, 2025 | Miami | hard | J. Pegula | 2 - 1 |
| L | A. Eala | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Shnaider | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Kalinskaya | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | M. Frech | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | C. Gauff | 1 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | J. Pegula | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | N. Osaka | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | E. Svitolina | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | L. Fernandez | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | Q. Zheng | 2 - 1 | July 28, 2026 |
All Aug. 2, 2026 results & picks →
WTA Washington FINAL — J. Pegula (A, age 32, rank 5) vs A. Eala (B, age 21, rank 42), hard. MODELS ELO: Pegula 77.2% | ML: Pegula 50.3% | Sim (resim): Pegula 62.1% / Eala 37.9% Betfair ML: Pegula 1.64 (~62% impl) / Eala 2.52 (~40% impl). Book: 1.50 / 2.59. Sim serve/return inputs (50-match): Pegula spw .593 rpw .447 hold .692; Eala spw .568 rpw .449 hold .590. Matchup-adjusted serve: Peg .544 / Eala .521. No input correction justified (sample healthy; Eala's numbers built partly vs elite fields, if anything understating her but market already prices the surge). Baseline sim taken as anchor. Read: ELO (77%) is the stale outlier, hasn't caught Eala's run. ML (50%) over-corrects toward her. The two balanced tools (sim + Betfair exchange) converge at ~61-62% Pegula. Convergence = efficient. RECENT FORM (last 5 each) Pegula: SF beat Shnaider(1847) 7-5 6-4 DOM/Strong; QF beat Kalinskaya(1887) 6-3 7-5 DOM/Strong; R16 beat Frech(1739) 3-6 6-3 6-0 GRIND; (grass) L Gauff 3-set; W Jovic(1922). Shape STABLE-to-SHARPENING (clean straight sets over two Strong opps). Eala: SF beat Osaka(1942) 6-4 6-2 DOM/Elite; QF beat Svitolina(2029) 6-3 6-4 DOM/Elite; R16 beat Fernandez(1817) 6-2 7-6 GRIND/Strong; R32 beat Zheng(1920) 4-6 6-4 6-1 GRIND/Elite. Shape SHARPENING hard, beat a tougher field than Pegula this week. PATH & SHARPNESS Both match-sharp at venue: Eala 4 matches (rest day 07-30), Pegula 3 (07-30/31, 08-01, 3-in-3). No rust either side. Eala's SHARPENING-dog profile is why ML dissents, but it is fully public and already reflected in her drift to 2.52; sim agrees with that price. FATIGUE Both won 2-SET semis yesterday (08-01): Peg 7-5 6-4, Eala 6-4 6-2. No 3-set-hangover haircut (2-set win ~neutral). Cumulative load context only. Pegula 32 (recovers slowly) on 3-in-3 into 4th day; Eala 21 (recovers fast) with extra rest day -> slight freshness lean to Eala, not an extreme spot -> capped at context, no numeric edge. NARRATIVE Note (undated, lastwordonsports): Pegula "beginning her best time of year", Buffalo/Eastern-time comfort, mild qualitative plus for the favourite. No letdown. No surface transition (both hard now, grass 3+ weeks ago). First WTA-500 final for 21yo Eala, final-nerves risk for the dog. MARKET CHOICE (edges vs commission-adj executable Betfair prices) Pegula ML 1.64: edge -0.1% | Eala ML 2.52: edge -3.0% Pegula -2.5 @1.89: cover 51.6% edge -2.6% | Eala +2.5 @2.02: cover 48.4% edge -2.4% Over 21.5 @1.93: edge -5.6% | Under 21.5 @2.0: edge +1.2% (below 5% bar) AH: Eala +2.5 @ 2.02 (dog ML < 3.0, shadow not mandatory; recorded for completeness) Best market = Under 21.5 at +1.2%, well under the 5% bar. No market clears. VERDICT No articulable edge the market is slow to price. Sim (62.1%) and Betfair (~62%) converge; the model divergence is ELO-stale vs ML-overcorrection, which cancels. Eala's sharpening run is real but already priced. Every market negative-to-negligible. PASS.