TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Paolini vs T. Maria (Eastbourne on 2026-06-22) — the market is efficient, with T. Maria favoured at 1.86.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Paolini | T. Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
51.0% | 49.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
48.3% | 51.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
30.9% | 69.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
43.4% | 56.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
48.9% | 51.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Paolini | hard | 1867 | 119–80 | 199 |
| T. Maria | hard | 1566 | 112–109 | 221 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 22, 2026.
Level at 2–2 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 23, 2026 | Eastbourne | grass | T. Maria | 2 - 0 |
| March 9, 2024 | WTA Indian Wells | hard | J. Paolini | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 18, 2024 | WTA Australian Open | hard | J. Paolini | 2 - 0 |
| March 9, 2023 | WTA Indian Wells | hard | T. Maria | 2 - 0 |
| L | M. Kostyuk | 2 - 0 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | A. Eala | 2 - 1 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | M. Sakkari | 2 - 0 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | V. Golubic | 2 - 0 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | R. Montgomery | 2 - 1 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | C. McNally | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| W | I. Marton | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | R. Zarazua | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | T. Gibson | 0 - 2 | July 27, 2026 |
| W | K. Volynets | 0 - 2 | July 12, 2026 |
All June 22, 2026 results & picks →
The model consensus indicates a virtual coin-flip (50.6% Maria) resulting in a negligible 0.4% edge on the underdog Paolini, which triggers a Kelly suggestion of 0.0 units. Qualitative analysis reveals a significant discrepancy in surface preparation: Maria is 6-3 on grass this season with a recent final run, while Paolini has not played a grass match in 2026 and is transitioning from clay. With the 'rust' factor posing a threat to Paolini's performance and the mathematical value being insufficient to absorb the variance, the risk outweighs the reward.