TennisEdge's AI bot is backing M. Frech (moneyline) at 2.08 in J. Ostapenko vs M. Frech (Cincinnati on 2026-08-15). Result: WON.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Ostapenko | M. Frech |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
59.1% | 40.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
35.6% | 64.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
45.0% | 55.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
59.1% | 40.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
58.7% | 41.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Ostapenko | hard | 1789 | 94–81 | 175 |
| M. Frech | hard | 1741 | 129–106 | 235 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Oct. 20, 2026.
J. Ostapenko leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 15, 2026 | Cincinnati | hard | M. Frech | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 7, 2025 | Adelaide | hard | J. Ostapenko | 2 - 1 |
| June 23, 2023 | WTA Birmingham | grass | J. Ostapenko | 2 - 1 |
| L | B. Bencic | 0 - 1 | Oct. 20, 2026 |
| L | S. Kartal | 2 - 0 | Oct. 17, 2026 |
| W | D. Shnaider | 0 - 2 | Oct. 16, 2026 |
| W | L. Fernandez | 1 - 2 | Oct. 15, 2026 |
| W | J. Pegula | 2 - 1 | Oct. 14, 2026 |
| L | H. Shi | 0 - 1 | Oct. 17, 2026 |
| L | I. Swiatek | 0 - 2 | Oct. 14, 2026 |
| W | M. Sawangkaew | 0 - 2 | Oct. 12, 2026 |
| L | A. Ito | 0 - 2 | Oct. 11, 2026 |
| W | M. Uchijima | 1 - 0 | Oct. 10, 2026 |
All Aug. 15, 2026 results & picks →