TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Munar vs F. Cerundolo (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29) — the market is efficient, with F. Cerundolo favoured at 1.33.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Munar | F. Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
29.7% | 70.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
29.3% | 70.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
31.7% | 68.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
29.6% | 70.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
28.1% | 71.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Munar | clay | 1693 | 115–79 | 194 |
| F. Cerundolo | clay | 1861 | 125–69 | 194 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 13, 2026.
Level at 3–3 over 6 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | J. Munar | 3 - 0 |
| Jan. 14, 2026 | Adelaide | hard | J. Munar | 2 - 1 |
| July 29, 2025 | Toronto | hard | F. Cerundolo | 2 - 1 |
| Feb. 7, 2024 | Cordoba | clay | J. Munar | 2 - 0 |
| May 30, 2023 | ATP French Open | clay | F. Cerundolo | 3 - 1 |
| W | R. Hijikata | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | D. Stricker | 2 - 0 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | J. Lehecka | 3 - 1 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | J. Fearnley | 0 - 3 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | F. Cerundolo | 3 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | A. Gea | 1 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | T. Boyer | 0 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | L. Miguel | 3 - 2 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | C. Norrie | 3 - 0 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | B. Nakashima | 1 - 3 | July 17, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
MUNAR vs CERUNDOLO — Wimbledon 1/64, grass MODELS: ELO 0.297 A / ML 0.293 A / blended 0.296 A. Market 1.33 B (implied 0.719 B / 0.281 A). Value pick A, edge +1.5% — both models AGREE with market, all three cluster ~0.70-0.72 on Cerundolo. Razor-thin, mutual-agreement edge. FORM: - Munar (A): grass form is bad — L Eastbourne 1/16 to Bergs (1586) 2-6 4-6; L Hertogenbosch 1/16 to Damm (1575) 4-6 4-6. 0-2 on grass vs Avg-bracket opponents in straight sets. Clay body: a couple DOM wins (Comesana, Basavareddy) but losses to Navone/Hurkacz/Ruud. Wrong surface. - Cerundolo (B): just WON the London/Queen's grass title — beat Kovacevic, Brooksby, Fery, Nakashima (1812), then Paul (1852) in the final 6-4(TB) 6-4 6-3 mix. TITLE: London 9d ago (grass). Peak grass form vs Strong/Elite fields. FATIGUE: A 1 match / 68min in 14d — but that 'freshness' is losing early, not real rest quality. B 5 matches / 585min in 14d during the Queen's run, BUT last match 2026-06-21 = 9 days rest before Wimbledon. Court-time gap neutralized by the 9-day gap. Roughly even now. NARRATIVE: Cerundolo let-down? London Final won 9d ago — beyond the 5-7d window, no live let-down. Title recency strongly validates his grass level; live form > historical surface ELO. VERDICT: The +1.5% 'value' on Munar is a math artifact contradicted by the qualitative read — Munar is 0-2 on grass against weak fields while Cerundolo just won a grass title beating tour-strong players. Edge is killed, not validated. Cerundolo is the rightful favorite at 1.33 with no remaining value to back. PASS.