TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Mensik vs J. Fonseca (French Open on 2026-06-02) — the market is efficient, with J. Fonseca favoured at 1.44.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Mensik | J. Fonseca |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
50.3% | 49.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
54.4% | 45.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
62.9% | 37.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
55.9% | 44.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
34.4% | 65.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Mensik | hard | 1898 | 117–56 | 173 |
| J. Fonseca | hard | 1954 | 61–22 | 83 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 30, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 2, 2026 | French Open | clay | J. Mensik | 3 - 0 |
| Dec. 20, 2024 | ATP Next Gen Finals - Jeddah | hard | J. Fonseca | 3 - 2 |
| L | B. Nakashima | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | T. Svajda | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | G. Dimitrov | 1 - 3 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | T. Samuel | 3 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| W | H. Hurkacz | 2 - 1 | June 25, 2026 |
| W | C. Moutet | 3 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | T. Griekspoor | 3 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | N. Kyrgios | 0 - 3 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | R. Safiullin | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | J. De Jong | 0 - 3 | July 1, 2026 |
All June 2, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used