TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J-L. Struff vs D. Medvedev (Wimbledon on 2026-07-03) — the market is efficient, with D. Medvedev favoured at 1.19.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J-L. Struff | D. Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
35.2% | 64.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
21.9% | 78.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
37.8% | 62.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
27.3% | 72.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
17.6% | 82.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J-L. Struff | hard | 1666 | 77–88 | 165 |
| D. Medvedev | hard | 1994 | 207–77 | 284 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
D. Medvedev leads 5–2 over 7 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 3, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | J-L. Struff | 3 - 0 |
| Feb. 25, 2025 | ATP Dubai | hard | D. Medvedev | 2 - 0 |
| Feb. 14, 2025 | Marseille | hard | D. Medvedev | 2 - 0 |
| July 6, 2024 | ATP Wimbledon | grass | D. Medvedev | 3 - 1 |
| June 29, 2021 | Wimbledon | grass | D. Medvedev | 3 - 1 |
| L | A. Michelsen | 2 - 1 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | M. Navone | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | A. Shevchenko | 2 - 1 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | J. Sinner | 3 - 0 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | H. Hurkacz | 2 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| L | J-L. Struff | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Merida Aguilar | 1 - 3 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | M. Cilic | 0 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | D. Altmaier | 2 - 1 | June 19, 2026 |
| W | T. Atmane | 0 - 2 | June 17, 2026 |
All July 3, 2026 results & picks →
═══════════════════════════════════════════════ J-L. Struff vs D. Medvedev — Wimbledon 1/16 (grass) ═══════════════════════════════════════════════ MODELS ELO prob_a 0.352 | ML prob_a 0.219 | serve/return 0.378 Model prob_a 0.273 → Medvedev 0.727 Market: Struff @5.59 (17.5%) | Medvedev @1.19 (82.4%) Value flag: A (Struff) +9.7% edge after shrinkage FORM (grass, most recent first) STRUFF W R32 vs Nakashima (1793 Strong) 5-set epic, 4 TBs — GRIND W R64 vs Baez (1463 Weak) 3-2, 5 sets — GRIND W Mallorca vs Landaluce (1685) 3 sets; L Mallorca vs Borges W Stuttgart vs Galarneau 3 sets; L Stuttgart vs Bublik Read: surviving on grind, zero dominance. Grass wins all went the distance. MEDVEDEV W R32 vs Merida (1439 Weak) 3-1 W R64 vs Cilic (1761 Strong) 6-1 6-2 6-4 — DOM W Halle vs Atmane 6-4 6-4 — DOM; W Halle vs Etcheverry 6-3 6-4 — DOM Hertogenbosch SF run Read: cruising on grass, DOM vs a Strong opponent (Cilic). Real quality edge. FATIGUE (last 14d) Struff : 4 matches, ~649 court-min, back-to-back, 1 day rest after a 5-set/4-TB war Medvedev: 3 matches, ~396 court-min, 2 days rest Court-time diff 253min (>60) → Struff heavily disadvantaged NARRATIVE Let-down: none (no recent Final for either) Venue: both 2-0 at this Wimbledon — amplifies nothing Title recency: none VERDICT — PASS The +9.7% "value" on Struff is a mirage. The model rewards his win count but ignores HOW he won: two consecutive 5-set survivals (4 tiebreaks in the last one) leaving him with 649 court-min and a 1-day turnaround. Medvedev is fresher and, more importantly, the superior grass player who DOMINATED a Strong opponent (Cilic 6-1 6-2 6-4). Live form + fatigue asymmetry both point the same way — the qualitative read invalidates the underdog edge. No bet on Struff, and Medvedev @1.19 offers no price. Efficient market. PASS. ═══════════════════════════════════════════════