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J. Fearnley vs J. Munar — Prediction & Analysis

Wimbledon · ATP Wimbledon - 1/32-finals · July 2, 2026 · 12:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Fearnley vs J. Munar (Wimbledon on 2026-07-02) — the market is efficient, with J. Munar favoured at 1.57.

Surface grass Odds J. Fearnley 2.40 · J. Munar 1.57

Verdict: no bet

The model found no value at current prices — the market has this one priced about right. That verdict is part of the public record too.
Profiles: J. Fearnley · J. Munar · head-to-head record · Wimbledon

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method J. Fearnley J. Munar
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
 65.1% 34.9%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
 49.5% 50.4%
Serve / return
point-by-point simulation
 50.1% 49.9%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
 49.9% 50.1%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
 39.5% 60.5%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
J. Fearnley hard1713 72–38110
J. Munar clay1693 115–79194

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.

Head to head

J. Munar leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
July 2, 2026WimbledongrassJ. Munar3 - 0

Recent form

J. Fearnley

W S. Ofner 2 - 0 Aug. 1, 2026
L A. Michelsen 2 - 0 July 26, 2026
W M. Zheng 2 - 0 July 25, 2026
W J. Wolf 2 - 1 July 24, 2026
W T. Boyer 2 - 0 July 23, 2026

J. Munar

W R. Hijikata 2 - 0 Aug. 2, 2026
L D. Stricker 2 - 0 July 13, 2026
L J. Lehecka 3 - 1 July 4, 2026
W J. Fearnley 0 - 3 July 2, 2026
W F. Cerundolo 3 - 0 June 30, 2026

All July 2, 2026 results & picks →

Full analysis

═══════════════════════════════════════════
J. Fearnley (A) vs J. Munar (B) — Wimbledon 1/32, grass
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MODELS
  ELO   A 0.651  |  ML A 0.496  |  Model A 0.499
  Market: A 2.40 (imp 39.5%) / B 1.57 (imp 60.5%)  → value_pick A, edge +10.4%
  Bot: BET A 2.5u (0.25-Kelly on ELO/ML mutual-agreement)

FORM (last 90d, most recent first)
  Fearnley: WON Wimb R64 vs Michelsen(1655) 3-6 4-6 6-2 6-3 6-2 GRIND(5-set comeback)
            LOST Nottingham R16 vs Bonzi(1736) | LOST Ilkley FINAL vs Bu(1786)
            grass lead-in poor; historical clay Rome final win May (stale for grass)
  Munar:    WON Wimb R64 vs F.Cerundolo(1736) 6-1 6-4 6-3 DOM vs STRONG
            LOST Eastbourne R16, LOST Hertogenbosch R16 (grass lead-in weak)
            but R1 demolition is the loudest live signal

FATIGUE
  Fearnley: 3 matches/14d, 9 sets, 371 court-min, back-to-back, last 06-30 (deep 5-setter)
  Munar:    2 matches/14d, 6 sets, 177 court-min, last 06-30
  Court-time diff 194min (>60) → FEARNLEY heavily disadvantaged on legs

NARRATIVE
  Let-down: none active (last final was a LOSS, weeks back)
  Venue: Wimbledon 1-0 both (single R1 sample)
  No title recency edge on grass for either

VERDICT — PASS
  The +10.4% "edge" is ELO-driven, and ELO here is stale: it rates Fearnley
  the normal favorite, but the CURRENT ML model is a coin flip (0.496) and does
  NOT back him. Qualitative read sides with the MARKET, not the ELO: Munar is
  fresh and just posted a DOM straight-set win over a Strong opponent (F.Cerundolo),
  while Fearnley is gassed after a 371-min 5-set comeback. The model edge is a
  mirage the fatigue + fresh-form signals actively contradict. No validated edge.
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