TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Faria vs R. Sakamoto (Wimbledon on 2026-06-25) — the market is efficient, with J. Faria favoured at 1.49.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Faria | R. Sakamoto |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
50.1% | 49.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
51.2% | 48.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
54.4% | 45.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
62.9% | 37.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Faria | clay | 1796 | 92–74 | 166 |
| R. Sakamoto | hard | 1676 | 79–55 | 134 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 24, 2026.
J. Faria leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 25, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | J. Faria | 3 - 1 |
| L | C. O'Connell | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | L. Darderi | 1 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | G. Bueno | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | B. Van De Zandschulp | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | C. Ruud | 1 - 2 | July 16, 2026 |
| L | T. Legout | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | J. Leroux | 2 - 1 | July 1, 2026 |
| L | J. Faria | 3 - 1 | June 25, 2026 |
| W | A. Dougaz | 0 - 2 | June 24, 2026 |
| W | A. Matusevich | 1 - 2 | June 22, 2026 |
All June 25, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used