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J. Domingues vs T. Skatov — Prediction & Analysis

Estoril · · July 18, 2026 · 16:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Domingues vs T. Skatov (Estoril on 2026-07-18) — the market is efficient, with T. Skatov favoured at 1.23.

Surface clay Odds J. Domingues 4.39 · T. Skatov 1.23

Verdict: no bet

The model found no value at current prices — the market has this one priced about right. That verdict is part of the public record too.
Profiles: J. Domingues · T. Skatov · head-to-head record

Full analysis

═══ J. Domingues vs T. Skatov — Estoril (clay) ═══

MODELS vs MARKET
  Odds: Domingues 4.39 (impl 21.9%) | Skatov 1.23 (impl 81.3%)
  ELO: 28.5% A | ML: 23.6% A | Blend: 30.2% A → value_pick A, edge 8.3%
  Alignment: ML ≈ market; ELO/blend mildly disagree (dog side only)

RECENT FORM (last 5 shown; all fetched matches used)
  Domingues (A) — 3L in last 4, futures level:
    07-01 L Andaloro (1547) 4-6 6(5)-7(7) — GRIND loss
    06-25 L Torres (1515)
    06-24 W McKennon (1376) — GRIND (TB)
    06-19 L Andaloro (1500)
    06-18 W Gonzalez Fernandez (1500) — 3 sets
  → 0 DOM wins vs Strong/Elite in sample; opposition Weak/Avg only.
    Idle 17d; last clay match 05-11.
  Skatov (B) — Challenger class, fresh title:
    07-13 L Collignon (1823, Elite-adj) in 3 — GRIND, no shame
    07-12 W Sachko (1668, Strong) 6-2 6-4 — DOM (Gstaad FINAL, clay)
    07-11 W Chandrasekar (1334) — DOM
    07-07 L Petkovic (1558)
    06-25 L Jacquet (1687) Wimbledon Final — GRIND
  → Competitive vs 1650-1750+ regularly; multiple deep runs.

FATIGUE
  A: 0 matches 14d, 0 min court time — well rested (rust risk after 17d off)
  B: 4 matches 14d, 12 sets, 489 min, 2 back-to-backs, last match 07-13
  → Heavy load on B but ~5 days rest since — largely mitigated. Slight edge A on freshness only.

NARRATIVE
  Letdown: Skatov won Gstaad title 6d ago → WEAK letdown window only.
  TITLE: Gstaad 6d ago (clay) — live clay form is strong.
  Venue: neither player has Estoril history; Domingues home-country comfort (many PT events) — no venue W-L here, cannot create an edge.

VERDICT: PASS
  Model shows 8.3% edge on Domingues, but ML agrees with the market and the
  qualitative read kills the dog case: Domingues is losing to 1500-level futures
  opponents, off 17 days, no recent clay; Skatov is a class tier above and just
  dominated a Strong opponent in a clay final. Skatov fatigue mostly rested off.
  Model-market disagreement without qualitative validation → no bet. No alt markets priced.

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