TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. De Jong vs S. Baez (Bastad on 2026-07-16) — the market is efficient, with J. De Jong favoured at 1.72.
═══ J. De Jong vs S. Baez — Bastad (clay) ═══
MODELS vs MARKET
Market: De Jong 1.72 (55.0% impl) | Baez 2.10 (47.6% impl)
ELO: 54.3% A | ML: 51.8% A | Blend: 53.8% A
Value pick: B (Baez), edge +1.2% — thin
Alignment: ELO agrees with market; ML leans ~2pts toward Baez; blend near market → largely efficient
RECENT FORM
De Jong (last 5):
07-13 Bastad R32 W vs Gaubas (1643 Avg) 7-6 7-5 — GRIND (TB)
07-01 Wimbledon L vs Fonseca (1633)
06-30 Wimbledon W vs Hijikata (1724 Strong) 5 sets — GRIND
06-16 Parma L vs Djere (1822 Elite-ish)
06-14 Cattolica FINAL W vs Carballes Baena (1692 Strong) 6-3 6-2 — DOM
Baez (last 5):
07-14 Bastad R32 W vs Dahlin (1296 Weak) in 3 sets — GRIND vs weak opponent, shaky
06-29 Wimbledon L vs Struff (1669) 5 sets
06-23/25 Boodles exhibition 1-2
06-07 Prostejov FINAL W vs Molcan (1814 Strong) 6-4 6-2 — DOM (title, but 38d ago)
Baez pre-Prostejov clay stretch was poor (L Burruchaga, Michelsen, Carreno-Busta).
FATIGUE (precomputed)
De Jong: 3 matches/14d, 9 sets, 467 court-min, back-to-back x1, last 07-13
Baez: 1 match/14d, 3 sets, 155 court-min, last 07-14
Court-time diff >300min → De Jong heavier side, but he has the rest day; Baez played yesterday.
NARRATIVE
Let-down: none — De Jong won Cattolica final 31d ago, Baez won Prostejov final 38d ago (outside windows)
Venue: both 1-0 at Bastad this week
Titles: De Jong Cattolica (clay, 31d), Baez Prostejov (clay, 38d) — both stale
VERDICT: PASS
Blend edge on Baez is 1.2% — below any stake threshold. ELO sides with the market;
only ML mildly disagrees. Fatigue nominally favors Baez, but his laboring 3-setter vs a
1296-ELO opponent yesterday undercuts the qualitative confirmation. No alt markets priced.
No meaningful model-market disagreement + no clean qualitative validation → no bet.