TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. De Jong vs J. Fonseca (Wimbledon on 2026-07-01) — the market is efficient, with J. Fonseca favoured at 1.16.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. De Jong | J. Fonseca |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
35.9% | 64.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
30.7% | 69.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
28.8% | 71.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
18.8% | 81.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. De Jong | clay | 1752 | 139–88 | 227 |
| J. Fonseca | hard | 1954 | 61–22 | 83 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 21, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 1, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | J. Fonseca | 3 - 0 |
| April 30, 2025 | Estoril | clay | J. De Jong | 2 - 0 |
| L | T. Skatov | 2 - 1 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | S. Baez | 0 - 2 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | V. Gaubas | 2 - 0 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | J. Fonseca | 0 - 3 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | R. Hijikata | 3 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| W | C. Moutet | 3 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | T. Griekspoor | 3 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | N. Kyrgios | 0 - 3 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | R. Safiullin | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | J. De Jong | 0 - 3 | July 1, 2026 |
All July 1, 2026 results & picks →
MATCH: J. De Jong vs J. Fonseca | Wimbledon (grass) 1/32-finals MODELS Market: De Jong 18.8% / Fonseca 81.2% (odds 5.00 / 1.16) ELO: De Jong 35.9% ML: De Jong 30.7% Model: De Jong 28.8% / Fonseca 71.2% Value pick A (De Jong) flagged, +10.0% edge. FORM De Jong: clay-court grinder. Last 90d almost all wins on CLAY incl. Cattolica qualifier title (6-3 6-2 vs Carballes-Baena, DOM) and a deep French Open run (beat Khachanov 1830 in 5). Grass sample = ONE match: 30 Jun won 5-set war vs Hijikata 1724 (7-6 3-6 5-7 6-4 6-3, GRIND). Recent grass-court pedigree essentially nil. Fonseca: rising hard/grass-capable. 29 Jun beat Bautista-Agut 1634 in STRAIGHTS on grass (7-6 6-4 6-3). French Open QF run with elite scalps - beat Ruud 2032 and Djokovic 1991 (5 sets). Far higher ceiling vs quality fields. FATIGUE De Jong: 5-set marathon YESTERDAY (30 Jun), ~1 day rest, court time 325min/14d. Fonseca: straight-sets win 29 Jun, 2 days rest, court time 193min/14d. Heavy edge Fonseca: De Jong burned 130+ extra minutes and gets less recovery before a grass match where his legs matter most. NARRATIVE De Jong let-down/overload spot: clay specialist parachuting onto grass off an exhausting 5-setter. His statistical 'value' is built on clay ELO and qualifier-level results that do not transfer. Fonseca venue/form momentum: clean grass win 2d ago, elite clay scalps - live form validates the market favorite. VERDICT Model edge on De Jong is a surface/fatigue mirage. ELO/ML lean him via clay body of work; the qualitative read (grass mismatch + 5-set marathon on 1 day rest vs a fresher, higher-ceiling Fonseca) kills it. Fonseca too short at 1.16 to back. No actionable edge -> PASS.