TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Choinski vs A. Popyrin (Eastbourne on 2026-06-22) — the market is efficient, with A. Popyrin favoured at 1.40.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Choinski | A. Popyrin |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
44.5% | 55.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
37.9% | 62.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
38.2% | 61.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
31.8% | 68.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Choinski | clay | 1806 | 151–83 | 234 |
| A. Popyrin | hard | 1665 | 84–96 | 180 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 2, 2026.
J. Choinski leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 22, 2026 | Eastbourne | grass | J. Choinski | 2 - 1 |
| W | J. Mackenzie | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | F. A. Gomez | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | O. Wallin | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | A. Barrena | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | F. Passaro | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| W | T. Kokkinakis | 1 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | A. Andrade | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | J. Lehecka | 3 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | J. Choinski | 2 - 1 | June 22, 2026 |
| L | R. Collignon | 0 - 2 | June 16, 2026 |
All June 22, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used