TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Avdeeva vs N. Noha Akugue (Warsaw on 2026-08-03) — the market is efficient, with N. Noha Akugue favoured at 1.62.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Avdeeva | N. Noha Akugue |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
40.8% | 59.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
44.7% | 55.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
41.2% | 58.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
40.8% | 59.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
41.3% | 58.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Avdeeva | clay | 1467 | 71–62 | 133 |
| N. Noha Akugue | clay | 1601 | 114–85 | 199 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 13, 2026.
N. Noha Akugue leads 3–2 over 5 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 3, 2026 | Warsaw | hard | N. Noha Akugue | 2 - 0 |
| March 6, 2026 | W50 Helsinki | hard | N. Noha Akugue | 2 - 0 |
| Feb. 22, 2026 | W75 Altenkirchen | hard | N. Noha Akugue | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 8, 2025 | W50+H Leipzig | clay | J. Avdeeva | 2 - 1 |
| May 1, 2024 | ITF W100 Wiesbaden Women | clay | J. Avdeeva | 2 - 0 |
| L | N. Noha Akugue | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | J. Niemeier | 1 - 2 | July 19, 2026 |
| L | G. Feistel | 0 - 2 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | A. Soboleva | 2 - 0 | July 11, 2026 |
| W | B. Cengiz | 0 - 2 | July 10, 2026 |
| W | J. Avdeeva | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | A. Bondar | 2 - 1 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | V. Steiner | 1 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | F. Jones | 2 - 0 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | D. Astakhova | 1 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
All Aug. 3, 2026 results & picks →
J. Avdeeva (A, 24, #235) vs N. Noha Akugue (B, 22, #296) — Warsaw, HARD, R?
MODELS
ELO: A 40.8% / B 59.3%
ML: A 44.7% / B 55.3%
Model: A 40.8%
Book: A 2.30 / B 1.62 ; Betfair ML: A 2.02 / B 1.65
Value pick B, edge 0.6% (negligible).
Both models make B a modest favourite (~55-59%). Market agrees. Consensus on winner.
RECENT FORM (last 5)
A (Avdeeva) — all CLAY/ITF: lost SF Hamburg (clay) 3-set to Niemeier 07-19; blown out
Kitzbuhel quali 2-6 2-6; mixed W100 Aschaffenburg run; W75 Ceska Lipa title (clay) 06-14.
Shape: FADING (heavy clay loss + quali blowout). Pure clay player.
B (Noha Akugue) — CLAY: competitive 3-set loss to Bondar (1791) 6-1 3-6 7-5 in Hamburg
07-22; beat Steiner; Rome QF run losing to Jones. Faces stronger fields, stays close.
Shape: STABLE against elite bracket.
PATH / SURFACE
BOTH transitioning off clay onto HARD in Warsaw — TRANSITION both sides, widens margin
variance both ways. Neither has a venue/hard-court signal in window.
FATIGUE
A: last match 07-19 (14d ago), no b2b. B: last 07-22 (11d ago), b2b=1 but 11d rest since.
Neither in an extreme spot. Both rested. No fatigue edge.
ELO vs RANK
B ELO-favourite despite lower rank (296 vs 235) — modest divergence, both play ITF/quali
circuit; not leaning on ELO to create edge either way.
PRICING
B @1.65 (Betfair): eff 1.6175, break-even 61.8%; models 55-59% -> NO edge.
A @2.02 (Betfair): eff 1.969, break-even 50.8%; models 41-45% -> NO edge.
Neither side clears the 5% bar at the executable price.
MARKET CHOICE
alt_markets: none at analysis time (handicap/totals null; only betfair_ml present).
AH: not quoted.
VERDICT: PASS. Full model+market consensus on the winner (B modest fav) and the exchange
price offers no edge on either side. Both-side clay->hard transition adds noise, not edge.
No candidate bet -> no refutation check required.