TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in H. Medjedovic vs S. Ofner (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29) — the market is efficient, with H. Medjedovic favoured at 1.44.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | H. Medjedovic | S. Ofner |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
33.8% | 66.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
53.1% | 46.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
43.5% | 56.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
65.6% | 34.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| H. Medjedovic | clay | 1875 | 100–43 | 143 |
| S. Ofner | clay | 1701 | 100–69 | 169 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated May 27, 2026.
S. Ofner leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 29, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | S. Ofner | 3 - 2 |
| July 1, 2025 | Wimbledon | grass | S. Ofner | 1 - 0 |
| L | S. Ofner | 2 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | U. Humbert | 1 - 2 | June 19, 2026 |
| W | A. Rinderknech | 0 - 2 | June 16, 2026 |
| L | C. Ruud | 3 - 0 | May 27, 2026 |
| W | Y. Hanfmann | 3 - 1 | May 24, 2026 |
| L | J. Fearnley | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | A. Molcan | 2 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | T. A. Tirante | 0 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | D. Rincon | 2 - 1 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | N. Gombos | 0 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
The mathematical models identify a significant 15% edge on S. Ofner, driven primarily by his superior overall ELO rating (-117 diff). However, this statistical edge is contradicted by critical qualitative factors: Ofner is entering Wimbledon with zero grass-court matches this season and significant fatigue from a deep clay run (Parma Final, 715 mins in 14d). Conversely, Medjedovic is well-rested and acclimatized with a 1-1 grass record including a competitive loss to Humbert. The market's pricing of Medjedovic as a favorite accurately reflects the surface transition and fatigue dynamics that the historical ELO model misses. We recommend passing on the model's suggested bet.