TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in H. Mayot vs T. Barrios Vera (French Open on 2026-05-19) — the market is efficient, with T. Barrios Vera favoured at 1.16.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | H. Mayot | T. Barrios Vera |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
35.7% | 64.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
27.0% | 73.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
54.3% | 45.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
39.0% | 61.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
18.8% | 81.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| H. Mayot | hard | 1662 | 110–91 | 201 |
| T. Barrios Vera | clay | 1624 | 161–103 | 264 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 19, 2026 | French Open | clay | T. Barrios Vera | 2 - 1 |
| Aug. 19, 2024 | ATP US Open | hard | H. Mayot | 2 - 0 |
| W | F. Pieczonka | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | K. Feldbausch | 2 - 1 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | D. Dietrich | 0 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | M. Brunold | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | R. Brancaccio | 2 - 1 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | A. Vukic | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | D. Dietrich | 2 - 1 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | N. Visker | 0 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | I. Simakin | 1 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| L | D. Sweeny | 3 - 2 | June 25, 2026 |
All May 19, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used