TennisEdge's AI bot is backing V. Rodriguez (moneyline) at 4.84 in H. Kinoshita vs V. Rodriguez (Sao Paulo on 2026-09-12). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | H. Kinoshita | V. Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
74.6% | 25.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
68.8% | 31.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
50.7% | 49.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
64.7% | 35.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
75.9% | 24.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| H. Kinoshita | hard | 1549 | 82–64 | 146 |
| V. Rodriguez | hard | 1355 | 82–68 | 150 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Sept. 13, 2026.
H. Kinoshita leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 12, 2026 | Sao Paulo | hard | H. Kinoshita | 2 - 1 |
| L | C. Brace | 0 - 2 | Sept. 13, 2026 |
| W | V. Rodriguez | 2 - 1 | Sept. 12, 2026 |
| L | O. Dodin | 2 - 0 | Sept. 3, 2026 |
| W | R. Munk Mortensen | 0 - 2 | Sept. 1, 2026 |
| L | D. Semenistaja | 2 - 0 | Aug. 25, 2026 |
| L | H. Kinoshita | 2 - 1 | Sept. 12, 2026 |
| L | Y. Putintseva | 0 - 2 | Aug. 22, 2026 |
| L | A. Lutkemeyer | 2 - 0 | Aug. 5, 2026 |
| L | L. Giovannini | 1 - 2 | May 7, 2026 |
| W | F. S. Plamenova | 0 - 2 | May 6, 2026 |
All Sept. 12, 2026 results & picks →