H. Kinoshita vs V. Rodriguez — Prediction & Analysis

Sao Paulo · · Sept. 12, 2026 · 14:30 UTC

TennisEdge's AI bot is backing V. Rodriguez (moneyline) at 4.84 in H. Kinoshita vs V. Rodriguez (Sao Paulo on 2026-09-12). Result: LOST.

Surface hard Odds H. Kinoshita 1.22 · V. Rodriguez 3.84

Bot bet

V. Rodriguez (moneyline) @ 4.84 · 1.25u
Result: LOST
Read the reasoning on the bet sheet →
Profiles: H. Kinoshita · V. Rodriguez · head-to-head record · Sao Paulo

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method H. Kinoshita V. Rodriguez
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
74.6% 25.4%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
68.8% 31.2%
Serve / return
point-by-point simulation
50.7% 49.3%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
64.7% 35.3%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
75.9% 24.1%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
H. Kinoshita hard1549 82–64146
V. Rodriguez hard1355 82–68150

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Sept. 13, 2026.

Head to head

H. Kinoshita leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
Sept. 12, 2026Sao PaulohardH. Kinoshita2 - 1

Recent form

H. Kinoshita

L C. Brace 0 - 2 Sept. 13, 2026
W V. Rodriguez 2 - 1 Sept. 12, 2026
L O. Dodin 2 - 0 Sept. 3, 2026
W R. Munk Mortensen 0 - 2 Sept. 1, 2026
L D. Semenistaja 2 - 0 Aug. 25, 2026

V. Rodriguez

L H. Kinoshita 2 - 1 Sept. 12, 2026
L Y. Putintseva 0 - 2 Aug. 22, 2026
L A. Lutkemeyer 2 - 0 Aug. 5, 2026
L L. Giovannini 1 - 2 May 7, 2026
W F. S. Plamenova 0 - 2 May 6, 2026

All Sept. 12, 2026 results & picks →

31 ATP & WTA matches analysed today. See today's predictions →