TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in H. Hurkacz vs S. Ofner (Wimbledon on 2026-07-01) — the market is efficient, with H. Hurkacz favoured at 1.27.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | H. Hurkacz | S. Ofner |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
60.6% | 39.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
57.4% | 42.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
62.9% | 37.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
72.3% | 27.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| H. Hurkacz | hard | 1777 | 125–81 | 206 |
| S. Ofner | clay | 1701 | 100–69 | 169 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 19, 2026.
H. Hurkacz leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 1, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | H. Hurkacz | 3 - 0 |
| May 23, 2025 | Geneva | clay | H. Hurkacz | 2 - 0 |
| L | J-L. Struff | 2 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | T. Paul | 3 - 1 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | S. Ofner | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | C. Ruud | 0 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | J. Mensik | 2 - 1 | June 25, 2026 |
| L | J. Fearnley | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | A. Molcan | 2 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | T. A. Tirante | 0 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | D. Rincon | 2 - 1 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | N. Gombos | 0 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
All July 1, 2026 results & picks →
MATCH: H. Hurkacz vs S. Ofner — Wimbledon, grass, 1/32-finals (2026-07-01) MODELS: ELO 60.6% A | ML 57.4% A | Model 62.9% A. Market: A 1.27 (impl 72.3%) / B 3.32 (impl 27.7%). Bot flags +9.4% value on B (Ofner), 2.5u — both ELO & ML sit below market on A. FORM — HURKACZ (grass specialist): R64 Wimbledon W vs C. Ruud 6-4 6-2 7-6 (GRIND but quality scalp); Halle 1/16 W vs Rublev 6-3 6-2 (DOM vs Strong, elo 1813); Halle 1/8 L vs Altmaier. Two genuine grass wins over quality, big-serve game amplified on grass. FORM — OFNER (clay grinder): R64 Wimbledon W vs Medjedovic 1-6 6-2 4-6 6-3 6-4 — brutal 5-set GRIND. Everything else is CLAY: Parma Final (L), Parma SF W vs Djere (1850), Barcelona title (Apr). His high ELO is clay-inflated; grass is his worst surface and the single data point there was a near-loss going the distance. FATIGUE: Ofner 791min court-time/14d, just played 5 sets 2d ago, back-to-back 3. Hurkacz 503min/14d, won in 3 sets 2d ago. Diff 288min (>60) — Ofner heavily disadvantaged. NARRATIVE: No recent let-down for either (Ofner's Parma Final loss 11d ago, Barcelona title Apr — outside window). No venue history. Title recency not in play. VERDICT: The model's 'value' on Ofner is a surface+fatigue mirage — clay ELO that doesn't price grass, against a grass specialist with a serve edge and far fresher legs. The market 1.27 correctly reflects the grass reality. No path to a B bet. Backing A at 1.27 (impl 72.3%) is also negative vs model 62.9% — too short. PASS.